A huge Labour win in the Blackpool South by-election and big gains in councils across the country puts the Party on course to win the next general election.

John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, told the BBC: “This is now the fifth parliamentary by-election in which we’ve seen swings of over 20% from Conservative to Labour.”

This swing – and the results in local government – are reminiscent of the scale of victories Labour achieved in the run-up to the 1997 general election against the deeply unpopular John Major government.

An average 9% swing to Labour across the country meant the Tories lost nearly 500 seats. Besides Labour’s gains of nearly 200 seats, the Liberal Democrats gained over a hundred, the Greens over 60 and Independents nearly a hundred extra seats.

A Momentum spokesperson responded to the results, saying: “Across the country, people are sick and tired of the Tories, after 14 years of austerity and privatisation. Labour has a huge opportunity to put forward a bold, popular programme to rewire Britain for the many. By rejecting it, the leadership risks making a rod for its own back.”

Drilling down into the results, however, a more nuanced picture emerges. Andrew Fisher, Labour’s former Executive Director of Policy and Research, tweeted: “Story of the election seems to be Labour doing very well vs Tories in places it needs to gain in a General Election, eg Hartlepool, Milton Keynes, Thurrock, Redditch, E. Midlands, even Rushmoor!  But in seats where Greens/Independents are organised, Labour is haemorrhaging votes.”

Dissatisfaction with Labour business-as-usual councils produced unexpected results in some areas. Labour-controlled Newcastle saw two Greens elected for the first time – one by a huge majority – as well as its first Conservative councillor in three decades.

In Bristol, the Greens emerged as the largest party by far, while nationally the party was on track to win a record number of councillors. But in Oxford, Labour, previously shaken by the defections of sitting councillors who became Independents, alienated by Keir Starmer’s line on Gaza, have now been further hit by the victory of four anti-Low traffic neighbourhood candidates.

The Gaza effect

Gaza had a marked effect on the Labour vote. Labour lost its overall majority on Oldham Council for the first time in thirteen years. Seven seats went to independent candidates. The Labour leadership’s stance on Gaza was seen by many as the reason – especially in wards where there are large Asian and Muslim populations.

A number of Independent candidates in these areas ran “Boycott Labour” campaigns, while others used the colours of the Palestinian flag on their leaflets to show their support. However, Council Leader Arooj Shah suggested that “bad actors” exploited the issue to sow division amidst voters who already felt disenfranchised by the cost of living crisis and cuts to local spending.

Labour also lost seats to Independents in Blackburn – and in Pendle, where Labour failed to win any seats in these elections. Earlier this year, all ten Labour councillors in Pendle resigned from the Party and sat as Independents.

In Kirklees, where two councillors left the Party over the issue of Gaza, Labour lost control of the council. In Rochdale, Labour kept overall control, despite losing a seat and George Galloway’s Workers Party gaining two. The Workers Party also defeated the Deputy Leader of Manchester Council.

Labour in Bolton also lost two seats and the Council Leader, Nick Peel, was unequivocal as to why, saying: “As a direct result of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Palestine many South Asian voters have not supported Labour or the Conservatives.”

In Bradford, Labour lost seven seats, while Independents gained five. In Walsall, Labour lost two seats and Independents gained two. Prior to the latest elections, Labour had already lost around 100 council seats over Gaza.

On the morning after the poll, political scientist John Curtice noted: “On average, the party’s support is down by eight points since last year in wards where more than 10% of people identify as Muslim.” This rose to eleven points as the counting continued and in some Muslim areas, it was close to double that.

A Momentum spokesperson said: “These losses should set alarm bells ringing in Labour HQ. Any party which takes its core vote for granted risks disaster sooner or later. When the going gets tough, Labour will need to rally its base – but from climate to Gaza, Keir Starmer couldn’t seem less interested.

“Starmer should respond by getting off the fence and calling for a suspension of arms sales to Israel, as other parties have done, and unreservedly condemning Israel’s ongoing war crimes in Gaza and the West Bank.”

A disgraceful comment

Impatience by senior Labour figures at voters’ dissatisfaction with the Party over Gaza spilled over into bilious briefings  at times. As it looked likely that the Party would not win the West Midlands mayoralty, one Labour source told the BBC: “It’s the Middle East, not West Midlands that will have won Street the Mayoralty. Once again Hamas are the real villains.”

Momentum responded: “This is an absolutely disgraceful comment – the ‘senior Labour source’ behind it should have no place in the party.”

A Birmingham Labour source added to the sour atmosphere. Calling the West Midlands mayoralty result for the incumbent Tory Andy Street, they were reported as saying: “We have beaten him as a general rule, but the Muslim vote has collapsed to the Galloway-backed independent.”

Momentum responded: “This isn’t an isolated incident. It is utterly wrong to view Muslim voters as somehow ‘worth less’. Keir Starmer needs to listen to Labour Muslims – and commission an independent inquiry into Islamophobia within the party.”

Labour MPs also condemned the anonymous remarks from the senior Labour source who invoked Hamas. Apsana Begum MP said: “This is a disgusting way to talk about Muslims. It is racist and it is Islamophobic.” Zarah Sultana MP agreed, adding: “As a party we need to listen to and acknowledge concerns, not hold British Muslims in contempt.”

Tahir Ali MP and Bell Ribeiro-Addy MP both agreed and NEC member Jess Barnard called for an investigation, saying: “These vile comments should have no place in Labour.” Mick Whitley MP called for the source to be disciplined. The Labour Muslim Network also issued a condemnatory statement.

Even moderate MP Stella Creasey condemned the comments and Jess Phillips MP said: “Whoever said this should be immediately thrown out of the Labour Party.”

Ali Milani, who stood against former Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the 2019 general election, told the BBC there was “hurt” and “betrayal” among many Muslim voters at Labour not immediately backing an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and not supporting an arms embargo. “We’re now seeing the electoral consequences of that.”

Former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell MP concluded: “Labour decision makers need to recognise the hurt felt by many Muslims and Labour supporters caused by Keir Starmer’s LBC interview and the failure to back ceasefire in the first vote in Parliament. An apology by Keir would help rebuild trust in Labour.”

He added: “One simple first step for Labour decision makers to demonstrate they have listened to what so many people are telling them on Gaza, not just members of the Muslim community but from right across our society, is to demand an end to arms sales to Israel.”

Disappointments for socialists

Elsewhere, many socialists will be disappointed by the North East mayoral result. Labour’s Kim McGuinness won the new post with a majority of 58,399 over Independent Jamie Driscoll, who came second. She polled 185,051 votes, while Driscoll, the former Labour North of Tyne mayor, who was blocked from standing for the new post by Labour, got 126,652 votes.

The result underlines that even where an independent socialist is a brilliant candidate with an excellent track record, it is still hugely difficult to defeat Labour at the polls.

In Hastings too, Maya Evans, formerly Labour Deputy Leader of the Council and also barred by the Party from running for a new term, was narrowly beaten by Labour in her ward where she ran as an Independent.

Sixteen of the council’s 32 seats were contested. As a result of the election, the council now has 12 Green, 8 Labour, 7 Independent, and 5 Conservative councillors. The council was held by Labour at the last local elections.

Overall, this was not a set of results for Labour to be unequivocally joyful about. The Party lost the Tees Valley mayoral contest and other mayoral races are expected to be tight. We wait to see how far the leadership’s stance on Gaza will have affected the result of the London mayoral race, where turnout is reported to have been low in ethnically diverse inner-city Labour areas and much higher in outer London suburbs, where the Tories have whipped up hostility to Mayor Khan’s environmental policies.

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