Ben Clinton examines whether modern centrists can realistically hold their ground.

Biden. Macron. Starmer. Not exactly individuals that bleed charisma or populism. Nevertheless, they are arguably the principal actors in international liberal politics at the moment. They’ve exemplified the establishment’s dumping of the left. A ‘safe pair of hands’ are arguably the system’s preferred alternative to true radical change. Yet, are these politicians exemplifying a consistent uptrend for moderate politics, or are they just a stopgap against fascism and the rise of an insurgent far right?

It is arguable that the rise of these politicians, many devoid of powerful personalities and rhetoric, is the political class’s reaction to the axis of right-wing populism. Rejecting a counter-option of leftism is necessary in their eyes, as moderatism supposedly appeals to a stereotypical right-winger, who treats radical change in the opposite direction as something to be feared.

But, in all respects, politics isn’t this linear. For example, studies by the group The UK In A Changing Europe showed that many who switched to Johnson in 2019 were just as left-wing economically as most Labour MPs. Regardless, this challenge to the neoliberal order has been shelved, as to even the most ardent leftists, electoral success from the centre ends up being painfully preferable to allowing the far right any clear continuity in their political power.

But if these ‘boring’ politicians often lack policies that are identified with the most disaffected swing voters, how do they chase success when it comes to polling day?

A recent City AM article claimed that in line with the electoral victories of Biden and Albanese, Starmer and other assorted centrist leaders are instead aiming to win elections by ‘default’, rather than pushing through charisma and bold policy to voters.

Many pundits will claim that the results of this strategy are clear – short-term electoral victories that quell the rising tides of ultra-nationalism and populist fearmongers. It’s hard to refute this as untrue, but one phrase stands out- ‘short-term’.

This is not a widely tested long-term path to societal improvement, but merely the most efficient route forward, even if it means demeaning the left and threatening an instant upturn in the right’s power once one takes office.

Nevertheless, despite these supposed electoral successes, it is hard to argue that these politicians have been anything but consistent, or to a greater extent, honest.

Biden promised strong change in comparison to his ultraconservative predecessor, supporting a $15 minimum wage for American workers, alongside voting rights and environmental protections. Yet, in response, the conservative wing of the Democrats have completely blocked these reforms, killing every bill suggesting to even minorly challenge the status quo.

As a result of plummeting personal approval ratings and lacklustre responses to legislative gridlock, Biden has all but shed both the ambitious moderates and swathes of youth voters that brought him to power. It now looks very possible that fascism will attempt a return to the US with a Trump victory in 2024. Recent bullish interventions by the President have quelled this downturn somewhat, but many will wonder whether the damage has already been done.

Starmer has broken the exact promises he was elected on: nationalisation and widespread reform to the UK political system, the most popular elements of the Corbyn project, have been wholly disregarded. Against the backdrop of an all-out factional war with the left of the Party, Starmer has opted for reheated Blairism without any attached charisma, instead of promoting any forms of visible socialism.

To his credit, Labour currently holds a massive lead in polling over a disgraced Conservative party, but this isn’t stable. Many are questioning what Labour really stands for, while Tory voters have moved into apathy instead of being attracted by Starmerism.

Macron is arguably the individual muddled in the least controversy, yet his recent actions haven’t been exactly reassuring. Macron has essentially won two elections on the basis of being the least-disliked candidate, defeating the far right matriarch of Marine Le Pen on both occasions.

Yet, with his presidential majority in Parliament threatened by a popular leftist front, he chose to side with Le Pen’s National Rally party in electing legislative positions, completely reversing any perceptions of him as a prudent anti-fascist. With his approval rating at rock bottom, many wonder if his legacy will be one of holding the line against a full-scale rightist takeover, rather than actually pursuing any negligible change to France itself.

With these consistent policy failures amongst some of the figureheads of this ‘boring’ movement, it’s really not hard to argue that the electoral success of moderates doesn’t exactly turn into clear reforms, but instead policy that devolves into tinkering with the status quo.

Subsequently, any bold moves or supposed changes promised are unlikely to lead to a clear switch of support from voters inclined to populism – a clear and present danger when considering how powerful rightist autocrats have become by manipulating our democracies.

A centrist revival, brought on by constant reminiscing about the sensibility of the third way and a desire to preserve the more mundane aspects of the status quo isn’t necessarily going to preserve our institutions for the next couple of decades. Many of us will be forced to wait patiently for its true results to come to fruition, but no one can realistically argue that ‘boring’ politicians are the true saviours of modern society, or the bringers of great change and reform to our brutally beaten political systems.

Ben Clinton is a Peasmarsh Parish Councillor and the Bexhill and Battle CLP Campaign Coordinator. More information on his work can be found on his Twitter account: https://twitter.com/bencclinton.

Image: Keir Starmer. Author: Matthisvalerie, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.