Stephen Low looks at what lies behind the shock resignation of Nicola Sturgeon and what it might mean for politics in Scotland 

No one on the left should have any regrets about the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon, a nationalist whose track record is one of selling off more of Scotland’s energy resources than Margaret Thatcher and whose current flagship policy is the evisceration of local government. Sadly though, it is not these actions which are the root cause of Nicola Sturgeon’s departure.  That’s down to the First Minister’s scuttling of her own scheme to obtain independence – and an SNP leader that can’t outline a path to ‘freeeedom’ isn’t long for the job.

Nicola – surname unnecessary – has been the dominant figure in Scottish politics for almost a decade, and a significant player for a decade before that. Now though, she has no mechanism to suppress dissent inside her own party and little with which to deflect others from her government’s often lamentable record or plans. The past is catching up – and the future looks beset with difficulties – for example, check what Holyrood committees have been saying about the National Care Service Bill. An exit now, however surprising, can be managed with more grace than might be possible in a few months, never mind a couple of years’ time.

Since 2014 the SNP has won eight elections in Scotland at least handsomely and sometimes overwhelmingly – regardless of what they do, or don’t do in Government. The starkest example of this is the fate of Dundee West MSP, Joe Fitzpatrick. He was the minister responsible for the Scottish Government’s drugs policy. Scotland became Europe’s drugs death high spot – with Dundee seeing more fatalities than anywhere else in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon explained the death toll away with the callous excuse of “we took our eye off the ball “ and sacked the hapless Mr Fitzpatrick in December 2020. He was re-elected with an increased majority five months later.

A huge driver of this success has been the SNP decision to make every election less about policies and far less about achievement and more about Independence.  Usually they claim that a vote for the SNP will mean a second referendum (‘Indyref 2’, as we say in these parts). Nicola Sturgeon has perfected a grand Old Duke of York act, expertly leading the troops up to the top of the hill before an election before leading them down again afterwards. This was done repeatedly – I recall two separate years when she announced “a summer of independence”.

The problem was that the SNP leadership, while loudly proclaiming mandates for a referendum, made few moves towards actually obtaining one. Indeed Nicola at times created her own obstacles, for example, inventing a need for a constitutional convention to draw up ‘a new claim of right’. The reason for this reluctance was simple – a lack of confidence in victory, and fear of the consequences of failure. So instead Nicola, like the White Queen in Narnia, ensured that for nationalists it was “always winter but never Christmas”. Recently though, the act was beginning to look a little thin and then the First Minister herself punctured the illusion that independence was being seriously pursued. 

In June last year the Scottish Government took a case to the Supreme Court, arguing for their right to hold an indyref.   The First Minister said that if defeated the SNP would treat the next general election as a “de facto referendum”. ( Note: the Scottish Government’s argument to the court was they could hold a referendum because it didn’t matter, while the UK Govt argued they couldn’t because it did – such is Scottish politics).

There were signs of discontent at this proposal, not least among the MPs’ group in Westminster – who could see a threat to their jobs. After the much predicted court defeat in November the de facto Indyref statement was repeated, this time though with a caveat that it would be discussed at a special SNP conference announced for this March.

At this a definite odour of rodent was detected. Sure enough in January the absolutely compliant SNP NEC approved a second, Sturgeon-authored position to be put to the conference.. This position rolls back from considering an election victory as a mandate for independence, to being a mandate merely for another referendum, a mandate claimed after at least five election victories in recent years.

Effectively this leaves the decision about indyref or not in the hands of the UK government. It is less a bid for liberation than an argument for the status quo.  Proverbially ‘all politics is local politics’. Except for viewers in Scotland, where ‘all politics is constitutional politics’.  Nicola has put herself in the position where on the defining issue all she can offer is more of the same.

Such is the level of control held by the Murrell–Sturgeon household over the SNP that it is difficult to imagine her position would be defeated at conference – an event now cancelled, itself an interesting exercise in excluding members from a say in strategy. It is, however, easy to imagine there might have been a  precedent-setting level of dissent which would be undermining.

Going now has much more dignity than risking an ‘I fight on, I fight to win’ type moment prompted by rebellions on policy matters – the Gender Recognition Reform Bill rebellion in December was the largest in SNP history, Nicola’s favoured candidate to lead the Westminster group was soundly defeated – or demands for action on Independence.

Where then does this leave the SNP? To the chagrin of opponents on left and right, still in Government and still ahead in the polls. To the SNP’s annoyance though, still lacking a solid majority (or in almost all polls, any majority) for independence. Although whoever replaces Nicola Sturgeon will lack her authority and stature, her departure is far from all bad news for the SNP.

The principal fear for Scotland’s hegemonic political party is not so much that they will lose votes to other parties, so much as their supporters won’t turn out. With Nicola at the helm at the next election it would have been a challenge for the SNP to make a claim to being either a party of change or independence. Any incoming leader will surely know they have to change this. As to which of the three (at time of writing) candidates will succeed Nicola as SNP leader and First Minister – no one really knows as this is an electorate of 90,000 voters about which little other than a commitment to nationalism is known. I’ll hazard one guess though – that the person who wins will be the one who bangs the drum loudest for ‘freeeedom’.

As for Scottish Labour – we remain the third party in the Scottish Parliament and in most Scottish political coverage and discourse. This means that how we do is determined far more by how larger parties fare than by our own efforts – and it is beyond doubt that shambolic government behaviour at Holyrood and Westminster has given us a bit of a boost – but this is a reflection more of opponents’ weakness than Labour’s strength. 

A new leader gives a chance for the SNP to say something different about Independence. What they say may not be very plausible or coherent but frankly the quality of the raw meat thrown to the nationalist balcony has seldom been an issue in the past. All the SNP need is enough to have independence as a big issue at the next election. This not only motivates their own vote – but feeds the symbiotic relationship they have with the Scottish Tories. They are an outfit with nothing to offer but unionism and, like the SNP, have an incentive to campaign on something other than their government’s record.

Nicola Sturgeons departure may provide an opportunity to shift Scottish politics onto more of a left right axis than the current indy-union axis, where arguing for constitutional change substitutes for arguing for social change. Or it could provide a shot in the arm for a tired looking flag-based politics. That would be a bad result for everyone in Scotland, and possibly further afield. You can’t feed your weans with a flag.    

 Stephen Low is a member of Glasgow Southside CLP. He is a former member of Labour’s Scottish Executive and part of the Red Paper Collective 

Image: Nicola Sturgeon. Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/scottishgovernment/49414096176/in/photostream/ Author: Scottish Government, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.