By Peter Rowlands

There is a view held by some that all that is needed is for Labour to be a little ‘bolder’ for there to be a resounding election win. There is some truth in seeing Labour’s approach as cautious, but in the main it reflects three things – not to make any serious commitments, particularly on expenditure, to demonstrate that it is on the side of the establishment in terms of its overall management of the economy and society, but to also demonstrate that it is an active party with new ideas. This aim may appear out of step with the previous two, but can be understood by the new policies, as outlined in the recent National Policy Forum document, being in the main of largely limited significance and with little plan for their achievement, or have already been rejected as being too expensive for the ‘fiscal credibility’ rules.

But with this emphasis, it is difficult to see that Labour is going to be able to offer anything much in its eventual manifesto. Most of the policies that have been retained will not find their way into the manifesto and will be categorised as for the future, when resources permit. Labour appears strongly opposed to any increases in taxation, as highlighted by Rachel Reeves on August 27^th, and with little apparent enthusiasm for borrowing, it is difficult to see that Labour will be able to begin to tackle any of the serious issues that the country faces. However, this may be less important, as far as the leadership is concerned, than preventing attacks from the right wing press, although the likelihood of winning could achieve that anyway, as was the case for the Murdoch press in 1997.

There is a view that a point is sometimes reached at which, irrespective of ongoing events, a broad decision has been reached by the electorate which is impervious to change, as in 1997 and 1979, and 2023/4 could be one of these, in which case Labour will win the election. I believe that this is likely. If so, winning will take one of two forms; an absolute majority, or being the largest party in a hung parliament.

Whichever one of these occurs, the left, or at least those favouring more radical measures than Labour is currently proposing, are likely to be in a relatively strong position. An absolute majority is not likely to exceed about 20, in which case the left, as defined by the Socialist Campaign Group, currently 33 strong, would hold the balance of power. In a hung parliament one or more parties would hold the balance of power, which would pose different situations according to which those parties were and their relative strengths, but again the pressure is likely to be for more radical policies, even if it was just the Lib Dems, although an agreement on proportional representation would be crucial here.

But a Labour win, despite the Party’s reluctance to make any radical commitments, would be likely to generate widespread expectations of change within the electorate generally, well beyond the Party’s membership, putting those mentioned as holding the balance of power in a strong position, and posing problems for the Labour leadership.

Peter  Rowlands is a member of Swansea West CLP.

Image: Rachel Reeves. Source: https://api20170418155059.azure-api.net/photo/GzViho86.jpeg?crop=MCU_3:4&quality=80&download=trueGallery: https://beta.parliament.uk/media/GzViho86. Author: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_McAndrew, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.