By Birgit Willige

On Sunday 9th October 2023, state elections were held in Hesse and Bavaria.

In Bavaria, where the CSU (sister party of the CDU Chrisian Democrats) is traditionally the strongest force, it narrowly maintained its share of the vote (37%). The Free Voters (FW), a voters’ association to the right of the CSU, increased its share slightly (from 11.6% to 15.8%) and will thus be the second strongest force in the future.

CSU and FW will continue their coalition. These two parties could not prevent the Alternative for Germany (AfD) from also making strong gains: the AfD, which is even further to the right, reached 14.6%.

All parties of the ‘traffic light coalition’ (green for the Greens – red for SPD, yellow for FDP) lost votes. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is no longer represented in the Landtag (state legislature). The Greens deteriorated significantly, getting 14.4% of the votes. The SPD (Social Democrats) deteriorated again, polling 8.4%.

In Hesse, the CDU won almost all direct mandates, except for five held by the Greens. The AfD received 18.4% of the vote. The SPD, which used to hold the majority of all votes in Hesse, achieved its historically worst result. The SPD, led by top candidate and Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser, narrowly secured third place with 15.1%. The Greens, led by top candidate and deputy head of government Tarek Al-Wazir, came in at 14.8%. The FDP received 5%.

The Left Party missed re-entry into the Wiesbaden state parliament with 3.1%.

The Left Party has suffered greatly from internal party squabbles: Its former parliamentary group leader and very popular member Sarah Wagenknecht criticised her party’s policies, which she said did not care enough about the concerns of the population, for example, the high number of refugees. She criticises her party for its Ukraine policy; she puts blame for war not only on Putin, but also the West. Sarah Wagenknecht talks constantly about founding a new party at the end of the year.

After 15 years of uninterrupted membership, the Left Party has been kicked out of the state parliament. Above all, the devastating disintegration of the federal party has left its mark.

The AFD

The Alternative for Germany is a right-wing populist political party in Germany. The AfD is known for its Euroscepticism as well as its rejection of immigration into Germany. It denies climate change. As a right-wing party, the AfD is often positioned on the radical right, a subset of the extreme right within the family of European political parties that is not opposed to democracy.

It is a new rallying point for all forces, including neo-Nazis, to the right of the CDU. In the meantime, it has a growing following not only in the eastern federal states, but also in the west.

The AfD has not only benefited from the dissatisfaction with the traffic light parties. Above all, it has profited from the widespread mood of crisis. Key issues, especially the debate on asylum and immigration policy, on which many people want a different course, benefit the AfD. This also applies to concerns about crime and economic decline.

A ‘lesson’ election – “Denkzettelwahl“

This occurs when the federal government is punished in a state election. This is often the case and was no different in 2018, when the CDU and SPD in particular lost the Hesse elections. Both formed the coalition in Berlin at the time.  This time it hit all three parties of the traffic light government  with full force. Not even a third of the Hessians are satisfied with the federal government. The parties of the traffic light coalition suffered heavy losses.

What was more important to many people when they voted were the issues that were not being decided on in the state parliament and state ministries: the shrinking economy, high inflation, climate change and the energy transition, asylum and immigration.

The Ukraine war resulted in major problems with energy supply. Germany had been almost completely dependent on cheap Russian oil. The previous grand coalition hardly promoted solar and wind energy. This led to high energy prices for gas, oil, electricity with high costs for heating, driving and industrial production.

Rising inflation (over 7%) was felt in every household. In addition, after rising temperatures and increasing storms in Germany and worldwide, climate change can be felt by everyone.

Against the increase in prices, the traffic light coalition granted a heating subsidy for every household. The price of petrol was lowered and the 9€ ticket (travel on buses and trains all over Germany for 9€ a month) was introduced for 2022.

There was a months-long dispute over a heating law drafted by the Green Minister of Economics, Robert Habeck, which stipulated that gas and oil heating systems should be replaced with more climate-friendly alternatives in the medium term. It remained open who should and can pay for this. This fuelled great fears.

As a result of the global crises, the number of refugees from Ukraine and many other countries rose sharply.

In this situation, the parties barely managed to implement their originally planned projects. Contrary to its election promises, the SPD has hardly addressed social issues. There is no Baföger increase (state subsidies for students).  Because of increased building costs and loans, there are no promised 400,000 new flats per year. Also in the health sector, led by the SPD health minister Karl Lauterbach, there is talk of clinic closures; medicines are not available and people often have to wait months for doctor’s appointments.

After the increase in the minimum wage to 11€, there was no further socio-political activity. Everything was slowed down by the neoliberal, business-friendly FDP, which provides the finance minister: No new debts are to be incurred. The debt brake, anchored in law, is to be respected for all social policy projects, but not for debts in the military sector: these are then called “special assets”.

In the government, the SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz works more with the FDP than with the Greens. For example, Scholz and Christian Lindner (FDP) do not want an electricity price brake for companies – which is favoured by all the states in Germany.

The SPD does not set the agenda in the traffic light coalition. The neoliberal FDP always gets its way in the coalition, although this leads to heavy losses for the FDP in all state elections.

The SPD Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser’s answer to the rapidly increasing numbers of refugees is simply to limit the numbers by fighting against smuggling and by the EU decision to distribute refugees equally throughout Europe. Help, especially financial support for the municipalities, cities and states is not on the agenda. The opposition, especially the AfD, took advantage of this, which became their central election campaign issue.

Now, with the start of another war, in Israel against Hamas and the Palestinians, it is difficult to see whether the traffic light coalition is willing and able to align its policies more closely with the interests of the population. This requires not only the special programmes worth billions for the military, but also for education, the health sector and infrastructure (buses, trains, public transport).

Birgit Willige is a political activist based in Darmstadt.

Image: Olaf Scholz. https://www.flickr.com/photos/boellstiftung/14271189360. Creator: Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. Copyright: Creative Commons BY-SA 3.0