By Darren Williams

On 13th December, Mark Drakeford announced that he would step down as Welsh Labour Leader and First Minister as soon as the party had conducted an election to choose his successor. That process is now underway and the new leader is expected to be in place by Easter 2024.

Drakeford had always made it clear, since succeeding Carwyn Jones in 2018, that he would step down part-way through the present term of the Senedd (Welsh Parliament). He was a somewhat reluctant candidate for leader – impelled not by personal ambition but simply by an awareness that he was the best person for the job – and is now approaching his 70^th birthday. Only the timing of his announcement was a surprise, although in retrospect this was entirely logical, coming five years after he began his term of office and more or less at the halfway point of the current Senedd.

The Welsh leadership election will now be concluded before any Westminster election and will give the new leader an early opportunity to establish a relationship with Keir Starmer. Drakeford has also had a particularly difficult year, with formidable political challenges compounded by the tragic death of his wife, Clare in January.    

Drakeford has been the fourth First Minister since the advent in 1999 of the institution originally called the National Assembly for Wales. He has undoubtedly had a higher profile than any of his predecessors- all Labour – both inside and outside Wales. The main reason for this, of course, is that the Covid 19 pandemic took place on his watch. Throughout the worst of the crisis, he appeared weekly on TV screens around Wales, providing reassuring, well-informed updates on the spread or containment of the virus and the public health measures taken by the Welsh Government to keep people safe.

Many within Wales who had previously been oblivious of the impact of devolution became aware that Welsh ministers’ capacity to take a different path from their Westminster counterparts could have real practical consequences for them and their families. Most valued the more cautious, consistent and science-led approach represented by Drakeford and this undoubtedly played a major part in Welsh Labour’s strong showing in the 2021 Senedd elections. The hostility towards a supposedly ‘nanny-state’ approach manifested by a minority in the context of Covid has, however, found greater resonance in response to a more recent measure: the establishment of 20 mph as the default speed limit in Wales.

But, while Mark Drakeford may latterly have become a somewhat divisive figure for the Welsh public at large, the high regard he has enjoyed in the thinking of the left – and all those who value a serious-minded approach to government – seems secure. Although he became an Assembly Member only in 2011, he had by then already exercised considerable influence over the political direction of Wales, as chief special adviser to First Minister Rhodri Morgan between 2000 and 2009, during which time he developed the policy programme that famously put ‘clear red water’ between New Labour England and ‘classic Labour’ (Rhodri’s term) Wales.

The privatisation and marketisation of public services was rejected and equality of outcome enshrined as a key political objective. Among other policies, the internal market in the NHS was abolished, prescription charges scrapped and comprehensive schools, accountable to Local Education Authorities, maintained as the preferred model of secondary education.

Drakeford backed Jeremy Corbyn in both 2015 and 2016 and was, in turn, strongly supported by Welsh Labour Grassroots and Momentum when he ran, successfully, for Welsh leader in 2018. He has been broadly supportive of greater Party democracy and, while this helped to secure some tangible gains early on – such as making the ‘Wales’ seat on Labour’s NEC subject to OMOV election – he has not been able to build on this in recent years, faced with a Party apparatus answerable to Starmer and David Evans and a centre-right majority on the Welsh Executive Committee.

Confronted as First Minister by austerity, Brexit and Covid, Drakeford has sustained a worthy, if understandably modest record in terms of policy initiatives. This year’s Social Partnership and Public Procurement Act bolsters unions’ influence within public bodies. The Wales and the Borders rail franchise was brought into public ownership when the private provision collapsed and there is a commitment to strengthen local authority control of bus transport, but the left was disappointed by the watering down of commitments to protect private tenants and by the cautious pace at which free school meal provision was extended. Moreover, while it is no secret that Drakeford’s relationship with Keir Starmer has not been easy, he has remained publicly silent over attacks on the Labour left and has recently caused particular dismay by refusing to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

Drakeford’s departure has also exposed the weakness of the left at the level of elected office, which has been compounded in recent years by the exodus of socialist activists. The left remains a minority in the Senedd Labour group, having no candidate both willing to stand and able to secure the requisite nominations. Consequently, the only contenders to make it to the ballot-paper are both on the right: Economy Minister, Vaughan Gething and Education Minister, Jeremy Miles. The absence of a female candidate is an obvious sore point and, while Gething is Black and Miles gay, neither of them shows much commitment to a consistently emancipatory politics.

Practically all of the ‘left’ Members of the Senedd have nominated Miles, seeing him as at least more committed to devolution than Gething but, given that Miles was a paid-up member of Progress for several years, this feels like clutching at straws. Welsh Labour Grassroots is not endorsing either candidate at this stage but is writing to both with a list of demands.

Whatever the outcome of the contest, Welsh Labour’s political distinctiveness seems almost certain to fade away over the next couple of years. With legislation in train to enlarge the Senedd with effect from its next election, one can only hope that there will be new standard-bearers of the left among the 2026 intake.           

Darren Williams is a member of Labour’s Welsh Executive Committee. Twitter:   @darrenw_cardiff

Image: Mark Drakeford. Source: Flickr: Mark Drakeford. Author: National Assembly for Wales, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.