The Labour Party’s support amongst British Muslims has halved during this Parliament, according to a new opinion poll. A survey by Survation and the Labour Muslim Network has found support for the Party from British Muslims has dropped from 86% during the 2019 general election to just 43% today.

Senior Muslims within the Party have called this a “a crisis point” for the relationship between the community and Labour, according to ITV.  Identification with the Labour party for British Muslims is down from 72% in 2021, to 49% in 2024.  Some 38% of British Muslims polled say their views of the Party had become more unfavourable over the last 12 months. The Labour Muslim Network said the findings “shows a startling collapse” of the “electoral and communal relationship” between the Muslim community and Labour.

Labour’s attitude to Gaza and its leadership’s persistent refusal t call for a ceasefire – despite the death of over 30,000 Palestinians – is seen as a key factor.

In October, Keir Starmer caused outrage when he said that Israel had the right to withhold power and water from Gaza. Although he later attempted to row back from that position, he later whipped his MPs against voting for a ceasefire in Parliament and instructed them not to attend ceasefire protests. Three are facing disciplinary measures for comments made about the Palestinian crisis and may not be allowed to stand again for Labour. A recent Politics Home analysis suggested that the issue could be utilised to get rid of more dissident MPs ahead of the general election.

Since the Israeli bombardment of Gaza began, Labour has lost control of four local authorities as a result of resignations from the Party. Newcastle’s first Muslim lord mayor is the latest to quit Labour in protest against the leadership’s stance over the conflict.

Several Labour MPs face the prospect of being challenged by independent candidates in their constituencies at the next general election over the issue of Gaza. In Redbridge, 200 residents turned up to a meeting called by the local Community Action Group to select Leanne Mohamad, a British-Palestinian Muslim, to contest Wes Streeting Ilford North seat.

Representatives of the Party at all levels have received a phenomenal amount of correspondence about Gaza and many fear the issue could be as electorally damaging for Labour as the Iraq war was twenty years ago. One Labour MP told ITV: “”It has been hugely disappointing, we told the leadership exactly what was happening and how our constituents were feeling about Gaza and they just weren’t interested and now we can see that the Party is becoming toxic among the British Muslim community.”

This latest survey mirrors concerns in the leadership itself about falling Muslim support. It was reported last week that Keir Starmer’s office had begun polling British Muslim voters amid growing concern about the damage done to their core vote by the Party’s position on the Middle East.

In truth, it’s not just Gaza that has alienated Muslim support. The appalling treatment by the Party hierarchy of East London MP Apsana Begum has rightly caused consternation. Dissatisfaction with Labour has been expressed elsewhere: in the Batley and Spen by-election in 2021, Muslim voters deserted the Party in droves, fed up with being taken for granted – and worse, vilified.

At that time, a Labour official was reported to have briefed the media that Labour expected to lose the by-election, because of a “backlash” against “what Keir has been doing on antisemitism”. Muslim Council of Britain spokesman Miqdaad Versi described the comment as “astonishing”.

Muslim supporters are dissatisfied too with the Party leadership’s retreat on Kashmir.  Islamophobia within the Party has also long been a concern. A Labour Muslim Network report three years ago found 29% of Muslim Labour members had suffered Islamophobia within the Party,  37% had witnessed it. 44% said Labour didn’t take it seriously, and more than half of those surveyed said they didn’t trust the Labour leadership to tackle it.

In 2022, the long-delayed Forde report found the Party, with its focus on the rise of cases of alleged antisemitism, was “operating a hierarchy of racism or of discrimination with other forms of racism and discrimination ignored”. Former Uxbridge candidate Ali Milani said at the time that the Party was facing an “Islamophobia crisis.”

The latest poll has some good-ish news for Keri Starmer, however: his personal approval rating amongst British Muslims is ‘only’ minus 11%, whereas Rishi Sunak’s is minus 77%.

But this is small comfort, given the uphill task Labour faces. The Party needs a record swing of 12.7% to win the thinnest of majorities at the upcoming general election. That’s bigger than Blair’s 1997 swing of 10.2%, which gave Labour a landslide win. Plus, the next general election takes place with little prospect of Labour winning back Scotland, with an unfavourable electoral map following boundary changes and with large numbers of voters disenfranchised due to new voter ID laws.

Mish Rahman, Labour NEC member, responded to the new survey, saying: “These findings are deeply worrying but unsurprising. For months I have been alarmed by the Labour leadership’s willingness to turn a blind eye to Islamophobia within the Party. Whether it’s the sheer disregard for Palestinian lives, the mistreatment of Muslim MPs like Apsana Begum and Zarah Sultana, or the refusal to take on bigots within their own ranks, it’s clear that the leadership is not taking this issue seriously. This poll should be a wake-up call to change course before it’s too late.”

Can Labour turn this crisis around? Momentum tweeted five simple remedies that would make a  start: “Stop silencing those standing up for Palestine. Restore the whip to Kate Osamor and Andy McDonald. Treat Muslim MPs like Apsana Begum MP  with respect. Call for a full and immediate ceasefire in Gaza – and condemn Israeli war crimes. Commission an independent review into Islamophobia in Labour.”

Image: Ceasefire demonstration, London, January 13th. c/o BH Griffiths.