By David Osland

Around a decade ago, Rochdale’s Lower Falinge Estate began to attract rightwing press opprobrium as one of this country’s ‘welfare ghettos’. Some 84% of working-adults were on out-of-work benefits, the Spectator pointed out. Life expectancy in ‘the sick note capital of Britain’ was lower than in Tajikistan or Libya, the Daily Mail chimed in.

Residents resented the characterisation as unfair and there have been subsequent regeneration efforts. Even so, Rochdale remains the most deprived town in Greater Manchester; parts of it rank among the most deprived wards in all of England.

It is, in short, the sort of place that James Cleverly would no doubt see as ‘a shithole’. Given that the constituency hasn’t returned a Conservative MP since the 1950s, it is permanently off the radar as far the Tories are concerned.

Its deindustrialisation – it was once a centre for textiles production – predates even the Thatcher era. What does the Labour government that will be in place in a few months’ time have to say to working class voters living somewhere like this?

In normal circumstances, we might have found out during the Labour campaign for the by-election held last Thursday. Unfortunately, the contest turned into a car crash, with the leadership forced to disown the candidate after nominations closed, after a recording of former Blair aide Azhar Ali’s antisemitic rant reached the clutches of an aforementioned tabloid.

That was all the opening George Galloway needed to take a seat with a sizeable Muslim population from Labour for a third time, building his campaign around obvious Muslim disaffection at the leadership’s “Israel does have that right” position on Gaza.

Anyone who has been paying attention to British politics since the Iraq war will have formed their own opinion of this man’s merits. I’m not among his admirers, although it is not the purpose of this article to relitigate a lengthy charge sheet.

What is clear is that Galloway is a formidable political tactician, possessed of the ability to distil a clear message and to build a coalition around it. He is also abundantly blessed with charisma, and luck too.

There is little point trying to place him on any standard left-right spectrum. Somehow he manages to combine meat and potatoes economic leftism with a self-professed social conservatism, while simultaneously sympathising with nationalism in Ireland, unionism in Scotland and Brexit in England.

He claims to have been approached by Reform to stand as a candidate for them, and that seems entirely believable.

That Rishi Sunak summoned the media for an emergency announcement on political extremism and started with a direct personal denunciation of Galloway must have felt like an absolute gift from the gods on his very first day as Rochdale’s MP.

The by-election result does not strike me as presaging a breakthrough for Galloway’s latest electoral vehicle, the Workers’ Party of Britain, always something of a curious amalgam.

While it has declared its intention to stand dozens of candidates at the next general election, funding will no doubt be an issue, and its membership base will be thinly spread on the ground.

Galloway is a one-off, and will likely remain the sole WPB parliamentarian. What isn’t precluded is that he will be able to put a dent into the Labour vote in some seats with a substantial Muslim electorate.

Proof of his potential ability to do that can be seen in the results secured by his Respect party in 2005. While only Galloway won a seat that year, four other candidates secured between 16% and 27%, most of which might otherwise have gone to Labour. That level of support could make a difference in close races.

Starmer can probably get away with ignoring the WPB challenge, such as it is. The baseline prognosis of an imminent Labour landslide still looks certain, and even dropping a few seats in the worst case isn’t going to change that.

Nevertheless, Muslims now make up over 6% of the UK population and a larger proportion of Labour’s electoral base. Going all-out to alienate them on a particularly emotive issue doesn’t look like smart politics.

I’m also sure that the new era of mission-driven government will be a fine and wonderful thing, even if I’d prefer an administration with actual policies. But will it mean anything more than plus ça change for the people in Lower Falinge?

David Osland is a member of Hackney North & Stoke Newington CLP and a long-time left wing journalist and author, and writes for Labour Research magazine. Follow him on Twitter at @David__Osland.

Image: Rochdale Town Hall. Source: Geograph Britain and Ireland. Author: Bill Boaden, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.