By Mark Perryman
If Labour is to win the General Election, the worst possible starting point is to take success in the May local elections, however welcome, as a guarantee of victory.
The Conservative Party may be in crisis but there’s a reason why since 1979 the Tories have been in government for 32 out of the past 45 years. They know how to win General Elections.
Labour has made more advances in councils across the ‘Blue Wall.’ Hastings and Crawley are now marginals, both Worthing seats winnable. But what matters is turning expectations into Labour gains.
How does Reform UK affect both the Tory and Labour vote? Will we see widespread tactical voting to further increase Tory losses? What might be the significance of disaffected Labour voters switching to the Greens and Independent Socialists?
Mapping the Vote seeks both to provide the answers and a space to discuss ways in which we respond.
The full programme
Two hugely respected experts on voting trends open the day.
Christabel Cooper, Research Director at the Labour Together think tank.
Tim Bale, author of The Tory Party after Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation.
Christabel and Tim’s keynotes provide an insight into the politics behind the polls. Q&As with each give all participants the opportunity to quiz their analysis.
The afternoon is divided into three parallel 90-minute discussion groups, each with a single speaker opening for 30mins to allow the maximum participation.
Emma Burnell, Founder of the communications consultancy Political Human, explores the means to communicate the message ‘Radical, Pragmatic, Social Democratic’.
Joe Mullhall, Research Director at Hope not Hate and author of Drums in the Distance: Journeys into the Global Far Right, discusses ‘Reform UK and the Resistible Rise of the Populist Right’.
Phil Burton-Cartledge, author of The Party’s Over: The Rise and Fall of the Conservatives from Thatcher to Sunak, answers the question ’Will 2024 be the beginning of the end for the Conservative Party (and what does this mean for Labour)?’
PLUS a practical session for those new to the most essential tool in any General Election campaign: ‘ Canvassing for beginners’.
To close, we look forward to the General Election with a roundtable featuring the Labour Prospective Parliamentary Candidates in three of the party’s Sussex target seats – Beccy Cooper (Worthing West), Helena Dollimore (Hastings and Rye), Peter Lamb (Crawley) and our Labour Prospective Parliamentary Candidate in Lewes Danny Sweeney.
All with our Lewes Labour pop-up bookshop, Keir Hardie Café and afters at the Lewes Arms.
Saturday 13 July 10am to 5.15pm. All welcome, our only entry qualification: an open mind.
TICKETS Book early and secure your place, Lewes Labour events always sell out. Solidarity rate tickets help us offerlow-price standard tickets. If you can afford to pay the solidarity rate please do so.
Presented by Lewes Constituency Labour Party in association with ASLEF, the train drivers’ union.
Mark Perryman organises events for Lewes CLP. His latest book Corbynism from Below is available here
Labour Hub 