Mike Hedges AM analyses the numbers

The 2024 election saw the number of members of the Westminster Parliament from Wales decrease from 40 to 32. Labour won 27, Plaid Cymru four and the Liberal Democrats one, with the Conservatives being wiped out in Wales.

This showed an increase from 2019 of five for Labour, no change for Plaid Cymru and one new Member for the Liberal Democrats and the loss of fourteen Conservative seats.

The opinion polls were wrong, something not discussed because they predicted the overall result correctly, but the last opinion poll published before the general election overestimated the Labour vote by 3% in Wales.

Election turnout, which in 2017 was 69% in both England and Wales, and in 2019 was 67%, varied this year with turnout at 60% in England, as opposed to 56% in Wales. Worryingly for a democracy, the number of people voting is reducing and the reduction at the 2024 election was faster in Wales.

The Labour vote went down in Wales by 3.9% from the 2019 result which was considered a very bad result, described by some as the worst result since 1935. In the UK, Labour’s vote share was down on the 41% achieved in 2017 but up on the 32.9% achieved in 2019.

Labour’s success in 2024 in Wales was based upon the Conservative vote dropping by 17.9% leaving them with 18.2% of the vote but still in second place on votes cast, but not in seats. The big change was the 11.5% increase in the Reform vote from that of the Brexit party in 2019. There was also a small percentage increase in the vote for Plaid Cymru (4.9%), the Green party (3.7%) and the Liberal Democrats (0.5%).

In only three seats in industrial south Wales (Blaenau Gwent where they did not stand, Caerphilly, and Gower) did Reform not come second. Having seen the advance of far-right parties in France, which was thankfully reversed in the last elections, in Italy and in Germany, why did we think Wales and the rest of the United Kingdom would be different?

For example, if we look at Llanelli, not only did Reform come second, but this was the worst result in a parliamentary election there since 1918. Labour now has a larger majority in Aldershot and Bournemouth East than in Llanelli.

Having campaigned for decades, I expected areas of council estates and older terraced housing to do well for Labour but in newer private estates and larger detached houses Labour to do poorly.

The opposite was true at this election.

As someone who campaigned across Wales, there were specifically Welsh issues. Too many roads have gone from 30 to 20mph and while most people, not those opposed to any speed limit, accept the change in residential areas, they do not understand why main roads such as the one from the M4 to Caldicot have 20mph sections.

Also, Senedd reform is extremely unpopular, with widespread public opposition to increasing the size of the Senedd.

There were health issues too, mainly the performance of the ambulance service and the performance of the North Wales Health Board.

 Social media has become more important at elections. To quote Marianna Spring, Disinformation and Social Media correspondent at the BBC:

“It is worth saying that some of the political parties have had success at producing viral posts. Reform UK in particular has generated a huge amount of traction and conversation on social media.

“That is backed up by what I have found on both the feeds of my younger undercover voters, and in my conversations with real younger people.

“As well as being pushed left-leaning content connected to Labour and the Greens, some of their feeds have also been awash with posts from Reform UK.

“It is mainly young men who have told me about how their feeds were dominated by posts about Nigel Farage’s party.”

I also met during the election plenty of people who voted Reform. These tended to be older voters, who have either paid off their mortgages outright or live in social housing, people who really disliked Rishi Sunak, but absolutely loathed Keir Starmer, who voted to leave the EU and think the government has failed on immigration and who like Farage.

Men who voted Leave were angry about the government’s immigration record, disliked Sunak and hated Starmer, and told pollsters they were going to vote Reform. Women who voted Leave were angry about the government’s immigration record, disliked Sunak and hated Starmer, and told pollsters they did not know how they would vote.

There must have been voters who voted Labour in 2017, Conservative in 2019 and Reform in 2024. All three were elections after the EU referendum, with the change in voting behaviour that caused.

We know the following. The electorate is extremely volatile. Fewer people are voting, and turnout is declining faster in Wales. There were particular Welsh issues. Social media is the mains means of contacting and convincing younger voters especially when messages are shared by friends.

Mike Hedges is the Senedd Member for Swansea East and a former Leader of Swansea Council.

Image: Mike Hedges. Author: Steve Cushen, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.