Peter Rowlands looks ahead to the autumn’s big political moments
There are three events occurring in the week beginning October 30th that will be of particular importance politically.
The first, on October 30th, is the Labour government’s budget. The approach to this has already been extensively discussed, with the government appearing committed to an austerity budget to reduce the ‘black hole’ and move towards balancing the books, involving cuts and other forms of taxation. The scrapping of the winter fuel allowance for most pensioners and the refusal to lift the two-child cap on benefits have been the most prominent issues so far, but it will undoubtedly become a much broader debate in the next few weeks.
Whatever the final outcome, it would appear that the government is committed to a balanced budget, and one which, although it will probably include forms of extra taxation, will avoid those which would be considered to be hostile by the business establishment. The October budget will be the government’s most authoritative statement to date on its economic policy, and will therefore be the prime target of left wing opposition.
But while it may satisfy the Treasury and the business establishment, it is unlikely to provide any answers to the urgent need to rejuvenate the UK’s public services , let alone address the cost of living crisis. And voters are unlikely to wait more than a year or so before expecting progress in these areas. It may be an easy task for the whips to ensure support from the new Labour MPs, with few committed to the left, but they will all have a strong commitment to retaining their seats, and falling support for Labour makes that less likely, particularly for the new MPs.
That is why it is vital that the left fights for the extra resources needed to repair our public services, as the alternative is a rejuvenated Tory party, or something worse. This is the only way that Labour can win in 2029, and the new Labour MPs must be persuaded of that, as they are the ones most likely to lose their seats if the election is lost.
The second event is the announcement of who is to be the new Tory leader, on November 2nd.This is important as it will mark the start of the process whereby the Tories seek to overcome the damaging split on the right which resulted in their lowest ever vote. How this is attempted remains to be seen, but it will boil down to either continuing to compete with Reform for votes, or, more likely, coming to some form of agreement with them. This could amount to a merger, but is more likely to be along the lines of the SDP-Liberal Alliance of 1982.
For the Tories, and the business establishment which largely looks to them, it is vital that this issue is resolved, and if that means an accommodation with the currents of populism sweeping Europe and manifested in Farage’s Reform party in the UK, then so be it. But a more right wing party or grouping may drive large numbers of moderate Tories to the Lib-Dems, and if Labour is seen by then as a busted flush, the next election could result in a fairly unmanageable form of hung parliament.
The third event is the US presidential election on November 5th.The importance of this event is undeniable, for the US and for the rest of the world, with a Trump defeat by no means assured, and this will now become the major international issue, with eight weeks to go.
But there is much happening before then, with the break in parliamentary sessions from September 12th to October 7th when most political parties will be holding their annual conferences, and those of the main parties should be of interest. This is obviously so for Labour, and while we can expect that the left’s strength and influence will be diminished, debate is likely to be fierce on a range of issues. Both the Tories and Reform will be primarily concerned with how they relate to each other, as set out above. The Lib-Dems, meanwhile, will reflect on how to sustain their recent electoral success, including the prospects for proportional representation.
So, much to interest us while we await the ‘three events’ that will be likely to sharpen up political debate in the UK and will certainly do so in the US.
Peter Rowlands is a member of Swansea West CLP.
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