Mike Hedges AM crunches the numbers. 

There were four general elections in Wales between 2015 and 2024. This short article looks at changes in turnout and majorities in seats that have been won back by Labour having been lost in 2015 and those that have had a reduced Labour vote from 2015 to 2024. 

Turnout between 2015 and 2019 varied between 65.6% and 68.6%, which is very close to unchanged. In 2024, turnout reduced by over 10% to 56% in Wales. Also, while turnout in England and Wales has been traditionally very similar in 2024 turnout was 4% higher in England. 

In the second half of the 20^th century turnout was over 70%, despite postal votes being more difficult to apply for than now, where they and proxy voting are available on request. 

The only conclusion that can be drawn is that more people do not want to vote than previously. Evidence suggests that voter numbers have declined globally since the 1960s.  

In the UK, some voters are less likely to vote than others. This includes younger people, people with fewer qualifications, people with lower socio-economic backgrounds, people who were born overseas and people from ethnic minority groups.  

Eligible voters might not vote due to political disengagement and/or logistical or bureaucratic barriers such as incorrect registration on the electoral roll. The first and main reason people do not vote is they are not interested and do not believe the result of the election will affect them. 

Many people who do not vote believe they do not understand enough about the government, the election process or individual party policies.  

A study by “Survation” found that the largest percentage of people who did not vote in 2015 did so because their beliefs were not represented by the parties and candidates. 

Those people who politicians mix with and meet either socially or at events are more likely to vote than those who they do not meet.  

The first challenge is to stop turnout reducing. Younger people less likely to vote than older people and approximately 6% of the electorate change every five years with mainly younger voters coming on the electoral register and older voters coming off.  

The challenge to us as politicians is to campaign and be more active in the constituencies we represent. 

 Vote changes 

Let’s look at selected seats: Cardiff North, Gower, Llanelli, and Torfaen. 

 The Cardiff North seat is the residential quarter of Wales’s capital; over half of north Cardiff consists of owner-occupied housing, with a high proportion of the population defined as middle class. 

The Conservatives won Cardiff North in 2015 with Labour polling 19,572 or 38.3% of the vote. In 2017 Labour won Cardiff North with 26,081 votes and 50.1% of the vote. In 2019 Labour comfortably held the seats with 26,084 votes equating to 49.5% of the votes cast. Finally in 2024 the Labour vote dropped to 20,849 votes or 43.9% of the votes cast but that gave an increased majority and made Cardiff North the fourth safest Labour seat in Wales. 

The Gower constituency historically consisted of the Gower peninsular and the villages around Swansea and the Swansea valley. Boundary changes removed the Swansea valley above Clydach and added suburban Swansea including Mumbles. 

In 2015, Labour lost the seat to the Conservatives polling just 15,835 or 37% of the votes cast. In 2017, the Labour vote recovered to 27,725 or 49.9% of the votes cast. In 2019 the vote fell to 20,206 or 45.5% of the total vote. Finally in 2024 the vote was 20,480 or 43.4% of the total vote but that gave an increased majority, making Gower the third safest Labour seat in Wales. 

Having looked at two seats where Labour have performed relatively well, I am now turning to seats that have been traditionally Labour. 

Llanelli has been a safe Labour seat, with a Labour MP representing the constituency since 1922 including the 1931 devastating Labour defeat. Despite boundary changes, the character of the constituency has not changed. 

In Llanelli in 2015, Labour achieved 15,948 votes or 41.3% of the votes cast. In 2017, Labour achieved 21,568 votes or 53.8% of the votes cast. In 2019, Labour achieved 16,165 or 42.2% of the vote. There was a further decline in 2024 to 12,751 or 31.3% of the total vote, making Llanelli the second most marginal Labour seat in Wales. 

These results were achieved with the same candidate at each of those elections. Put into perspective, this is fewer votes and a lower percentage of the vote than was achieved in Bournemouth West which had been Conservative since its creation in 1950.  

The Torfaen constituency includes the new town of Cwmbran, Pontypool, and its surrounding districts and stretches north to Blaenavon.  Boundary changes did not affect the character of the constituency. In 2015, Labour polled 16,938 or 44.6% of the vote. In 2017 the Labour vote grew to 22,134 or 57.6% of the vote. In 2019 there was a reduction to 15,546 or 41.8% of the vote. Finally in 2024 the vote remained fairly static at 15,176 or 42.5% of the votes cast. This makes Torfaen the 15^th safest Labour seat in Wales. 

What this shows is Labour doing very well in the more affluent suburban seats but less well in the former industrial seats which have been historically seen as Labour heartlands. 

Mike Hedges is the Senedd Member for Swansea East and a former Leader of Swansea Council.

Image: Mike Hedges. Author: Steve Cushen, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.