Mike Hedges AM looks ahead to the likely issues and the main challengers.

I wrote in June 2016 after the Welsh Assembly election that Labour had lost voters to UKIP because our Party appeared “irrelevant to their lives”, and thatLabour’s “good communicators do not communicate” with ordinary voters.

Writing on the Welsh Labour Grassroots website, I set out what I thought Labour should do to win back its traditional supporters. Despite losing only one seat, Labour’s constituency vote share fell from 42.3% to 34.7%. UKIP won 12.5% and finished second to Labour in five constituencies, including Swansea East, and won seven regional list seats.

UKIP had a simple message: ‘Leave the EU, end immigration and everything will be all right.’ This resonated with voters who were unhappy with their lot.

Many voters suffered from a difficulty of getting social housing either personally or for family members, a lack of employment prospects, zero-hour or very-few-guaranteed-hours contracts, pay at the minimum wage and debt, or the fear of debt.

Questioning what Labour had done wrong, I said the Party did not engage enough with voters. The Party did not address their concerns and appeared irrelevant to their lives. Most importantly Labour was no longer seen as on their side.

I said Labour needed to build council and other social housing to reduce housing pressure and support the real living wage which is higher than the UK government national living wage.

I asked what do most people want? I replied: a nice house, a job, adequate pay, no fear of debt and opportunities for their children, grandchildren and wider family. We need to address these desires in the language of the electorate whom we are trying to communicate with.

What has happened since I wrote that?

In 2021 UKIP lost all their seats and collapsed to 0.77% of the vote and were overtaken by Reform on 1.57%, both polling a lower percentage than ‘Abolish the Senedd’ and the Green party.

Welsh Government actions since 2021 have included 20mph speed limits, Senedd reform and attempts to reduce hospital waiting lists. Data has shown most motorists are adapting and discovering it is having little effect on their journey time.

On speed limits there are basically three views: one, we do not need speed limits on any road; two, 20mph is suitable for most A and B  roads; three, 20mph is needed in built-up areas, especially where roads are narrowed to one lane by cars parked on both sides of the road and around schools and parks.

The current set-up of road speed limits is that most A roads are 30mph or higher unless there are specific reasons, such as travelling through a heavily built-up area with shops.

 We know that lower speeds are saving lives and reducing hospital admissions. What is needed is a review of speed limit on all B roads and A roads that have been reduced to 20mph to decide which could safely be returned to 30mph.

Senedd reform involves increasing the number of members elected to the Senedd, a new voting system and very large constituencies, twice the size of each Westminster constituency. At the next Senedd election the Welsh Parliament will be revamped, expanding from 60 to 96 members.

They will be elected from 16 new constituencies, formed by merging 32 Westminster constituencies drawn up for the last general election.

Each constituency will elect six candidates through a closed list. Voters will pick one party they want to support but will not be able to pick a specific candidate. Candidates will then be elected through a system of proportional representation. It will almost certainly reduce turnout and possibly substantially.

I again ask for Senedd reform  to be postponed until 2030.

The Welsh Government has a new initiative to reduce waiting times for NHS treatment.

There are plans to cut NHS waiting lists in Wales by 200,000 people, eliminate two-year waiting times for planned treatment and restore a maximum eight-week wait for tests by March 2026.

There is a new “patient deal” to help people track their place on the waiting list and to crackdown on the 700,000 outpatient appointments which are missed or cancelled every year in Wales.

The government is hoping that “more efficient use” of healthcare resources will provide a significant boost to the number of people being treated in Wales.

The general election in 2024 produced a result in Wales of Labour winning 27 seats, Plaid Cymru 4 and one Liberal Democrat. Behind the result we saw turnout drop by 11% from 67% to 56%. Labour’s vote fell four points from 2019, with Reform’s vote increasing from 5.4% to 16.9%.

The Westminster government have made a number of unpopular decisions including ending winter fuel payments and planning to reduce disability benefits.

The ending of winter fuel payments to all those not on pension credit hit a large number of poorer pensioners. While I have had someone tell me that they needed the winter fuel payment to pay for the drinks package on a cruise, many have had to cut back on important expenditure.

The Westminster government should either return winter fuel payments to people on any benefit or fully return it and claw it back via income tax as the Conservatives did with child benefit.

Labour has unveiled plans for £6 billion in benefits cuts, with five major changes to the welfare system announced by the Department for Work and Pensions.

On benefit changes there is a need to support those with disabilities in work. There is a need to support disabled people, but benefit or work should not be a choice. If people can work, they should – not as one person told me that they could not get up for work in the morning because they played online computer games through the night.

The next Senedd election is in May 2026. We need to start getting things ready right now.

Mike Hedges is the Senedd Member for Swansea East and a former Leader of Swansea Council.

Image: Mike Hedges. Author: Steve Cushen, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.