“On every door it was the same story — winter fuel and PIP.” These were the words of one Labour campaigner emerging from the count at the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, where Reform UK won – by just six votes – one of Labour’s safest seats.

The by-election occurred after Labour MP Mike Amesbury, who won the seat with 53% of the vote at the general election, was forced to resign after being convicted for assault.

It’s the first time in over half a century that Labour has not represented Runcorn. Turnout was high for a by-election at 46%. Reform overturned Labour’s 14,700 majority in a result that, if replicated at a general election, could see them win scores of parliamentary seats. More than 250 Labour MPs, including Chancellor Rachel Reeves and three other Cabinet members would lose their seats if the swing were repeated across the country.

“Farage’s party sought to make immigration the key issue in this overwhelmingly white British corner of north-west England, raising fears over small boat crossings, houses of multiple occupancy and even Turkish barbers,” reported the Guardian.

“Reform UK also attacked Labour’s cutting of the winter fuel payment – an issue repeatedly raised by voters – as well as its early release of prisoners and the rising cost of energy bills.”

Labour were in trouble from the outset given the circumstances in which its disgraced MP had to resign following his brutal late-night attack, caught on camera, on a member of the public. Karen Shore, the replacement candidate, fought an unprincipled campaign which appeared to make concessions to the racist right when she launched a Facebook petition to close a local hotel which accommodated asylum seekers.

Former Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott commented: “Labour’s campaign for these elections was non-stop boats, asylum, deportation, courts. It was all about copying Reform UK. It was a disaster. It should stop.”

Despite a crowded field of thirteen contenders, the result was essentially a two-horse race. Candidates supposedly to the left of Labour failed to make an impression: Peter Ford, who ran for George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain and who campaigned on slogans that included “Stop the Boats” and “Tough on Immigration” got a derisory 164 votes.

Drawing lessons

Pollster More in Common’s Luke Tryl suggested the swing to Reform in Runcorn, as well as in council and mayoral elections, reflects “deep disillusionment with the status quo, anger at 14 years of Tories and frustration with the start of the Labour government.”

In response to Labour’s defeat in Runcorn, Momentum Co-Chair Sasha das Gupta said: “By continuing austerity, pandering to the far right and failing to offer real change, the Labour Leadership risks handing the country to the likes of Nigel Farage.

It’s time for MPs, Councillors, Party members and the wider labour movement to speak out, oppose attacks on living standards, and demand the Government change course by offering real Labour values and standing up for working class communities.”

Brian Leishman MP agreed, tweeting: “Runcorn shows Labour must change course. People voted for real change last July and an end to austerity. The first 10 months haven’t been good enough or what the people want and if we don’t improve people’s living standards then the next government will be an extreme right wing one.”

Former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell MP said: “Labour supporters feel Labour, their Party, has turned its back on them citing Winter Fuel Allowance, the NI tax on jobs and the threat of disability cuts. The message to ministers is: drop the plans to attack the disabled.”

Nadia Whittome MP agreed: “Cutting disability benefits and scrapping the Winter Fuel Allowance made voters abandon us. The leadership needs to end its obsession with chasing the far-right on immigration, which only bolsters Reform.

“Instead, we must tackle the real causes of falling living standards and broken public services like austerity, de-industrialisation, and climate vandalism. Tax the super-rich and multinational corporations. Scrap the disability benefit cuts and the two child limit. End austerity.”

Zarah Sultana MP said: “Labour losing one of its safest seats shows what happens when a government cuts disability benefits and winter fuel payments, keeps the two-child benefit cap, and panders to anti-migrant rhetoric.”

Former Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon MP added his voice: “Labour’s defeat in Runcorn was entirely avoidable — and is the direct result of the Party leadership’s political choices. By pushing policies like cuts to disability benefits and scrapping the winter fuel allowance, the leadership is driving away our own voters — and letting Reform squeeze through. 

“The Labour leadership must urgently change course and govern with real Labour values to deliver the change people are crying out for. It should start by ditching the plans to cut disability benefits and increase taxes on the wealthiest instead.

“If it fails to deliver that real change, things could get far worse, with Reform waiting in the wings. And the consequences of that would be horrific for those our Party exists to represent.”

Apsana Begum MP said: “This Labour defeat was preventable. The priority must be to drop the planned cuts to disability benefits, restore the winter fuel allowance, end all arms sales to Israel, scrap the two-child limit and tax the super-rich. These are the decisions needed to deliver the change promised.”

Labour’s re-elected Mayor of Doncaster, Roz Jones, said the Prime Minister was getting it wrong on welfare, winter fuel and National Insurance. She told the BBC: “I think national government needs to look and see what people are saying. I wrote as soon as the winter fuel allowance was actually mooted, and I said it was wrong, and therefore I stepped in immediately and used our household support fund to ensure no-one in Doncaster went cold during the winter.”

Image: https://northwestbylines.co.uk/politics/local-elections-what-does-a-good-night-look-like-for-keir-starmers-labour-or-rishi-sunaks-conservatives/ Creator: rawpixel.com | Credit: rawpixel.com. Licence: CC0 1.0 Universal CC0 1.0 Deed