The last fortnight has seen a complete transformation of the situation in the Labour Party. If a week is a long time in politics, for Keir Starmer the period since he promised a Government reset that would bring “delivery, delivery, delivery” must seems like an eternity.

True, the departure of Deputy Leader Angela Rayner will not have been much of a blow to Starmer. In fact, some of the factional operators within his leadership team may even have helped to engineer it. But the holding of a fresh election for Deputy Leader at a time when Starmer himself is at his lowest point since becoming Prime Minister contains real dangers for those who want things to go on as before.

Of course, the leadership attempted to truncate the democratic process – former Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon MP said that allowing just a couple of days for candidates to secure MPs’ nominations was “the mother of all stitch-ups.” But even in that short space of time, left candidate Bell Ribeiro-Addy was able to raise a range of concerns about the direction of the Party before conceding that she lacked the necessary support to get the absurdly high number of eighty MPs’ nominations to get on the ballot paper. Despite this, her insightful articles and media appearances were a real boost for the Labour left.

Mandelson: ministers incandescent

Any hope by leadership loyalists that the withdrawal of her candidacy would mark the end of awkward questions about Keir Starmer’s political abilities were exploded by the fiasco surrounding  his defence of Lord Mandelson, followed by the US Ambassador’s resignation a day later.

Government spin suggested that the day after Starmer backed Mandelson at Prime Minister’s Questions, emails leaked to the media overnight had shown that “the depth and extent of Peter Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein is materially different from that known at the time of his appointment.”

Really?  But it then emerged that Downing Street was given the new material on Mandelson a day before Starmer defended his close ally in Parliament. Did he not think that Mandelson’s fulsome and affectionate supported for Epstein, after his first conviction for child sex offences, was not a matter of the gravest concern? Or was Starmer not shown the incriminating evidence by his Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney, another protégé of Mandelson? Either way, McSweeney’s position looks increasingly untenable.

Unnamed Government ministers were incandescent. One told Politics Home that Mandelson “should never have been appointed and should have been sacked before PMQs yesterday. It’s another shitshow.”

Tailing the right on immigration

It’s not just the Mandelson shambles, however. Many MPs are disgusted with the Government’s policy of demonising migrants. This month alone, the move-on period for newly recognised refugees was cut from 56 days to 28, which means people granted asylum will be evicted from Home Office housing before they can access benefits, open a bank account, or start work — pushing many into homelessness. On top of that, the Home Office suspended new applications for refugee family reunion, blocking  family members from using safe routes to join their loved ones.

The policy of scapegoating migrants has emboldened the far right. This summer saw another round of sometimes violent protests outside hotels housing asylum seekers and on Saturday a large far right-led protest took over the streets of London. Speaking for the Government, Business Secretary Peter Kyle responded to the march, led by the well-funded convicted criminal ‘Tommy Robinson’, by announcing that free speech is “alive and well”. It’s a pity that the same commitment to free speech was not extended to the hundreds of peaceful protesters who were arrested the week before for holding placards supporting the banned group Palestine Action.

Backbench Labour MPs have not shown the same complacency as Kyle. Many have expressed alarm about the rise of the far right.  Commenting on Saturday’s march, Lizzi Collinge MP said: “These people aren’t patriots and don’t represent British people.”

South Norfolk MP Ben Goldsborough said: “Elon Musk’s call for violence is not free speech. It is a direct threat to our democracy, our people, and our traditions of tolerance and decency.”

If the Government’s appeasement of the far right is a calculated attempt to win Reform UK voters, even this is looking increasingly misjudged. Reform are growing at the expense of a flatlining Tory Party. Even the rise in support for hard right ideas among young men can be overstated: latest polls suggest that men aged 18 to 24 are most likely to support Labour (37%), the Greens (18%), Liberal Democrats (15%) than Reform (14%).

Other reasons for anger

Besides, the leadership’s right wing policies, MPs and members are also angry about the regime inside the Party, where excellent councillors have been blocked on factional grounds and the Labour whip has been selectively withdrawn from MPs who oppose benefit cuts – but not from Lord Mandelson who heaped gushing praise on a convicted child sex offender.

What’s new is that MPs are increasingly ready to question Keir Starmer’s position as head of the Government. Clive Lewis MP, one of the leading supporters of the new centre-left current Mainstream,  said he “has lost control within the first year” and “doesn’t seem up to the job.”

Rosena Allin-Khan MP agreed, saying of Starmer: “I believe he’s had a tricky year in office, I think the polls are going to show in May whether or not people believe he is up to the job.”

Union leaders are also distancing themselves from Labour’s woeful performance. Speaking at her union’s annual conference, UNISON general secretary Christina McAnea, who had previously been a firm supporter of Starmer and McSweeney’s erosion of Party democracy and is now facing a powerful challenge from popular lay-member Andrea Egan, roasted the Government for attacking benefits for disabled people, maintaining the two-child benefit cap and “steal[ing] the clothes of the right” on immigration.

Meanwhile Sharon Graham’s Unite has clashed with Government-appointed commissioners, whom she accuses of sabotaging a pay deal in the long-running Birmingham bin strike. Graham now openly speaks about the possibility of disaffiliation from the Labour Party.

“The absolute expiry date is May”

Next May will be  a big electoral test for the Government with the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Senedd, all London borough councils and many seats across England being contested.

Observer journalist Cat Neilan speculated on the date of Starmer’s demise: “The absolute expiry date is May. But it could be the budget if that unravels in a spectacular way – and Party conference is going to be an absolute nightmare.”

November’s budget needs to be a complete game-changer if the Government’s fortunes are to improve. All the signs, however, are that it won’t be, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves last week ruling out “unproven” wealth taxes.

Financial Times columnist Stephen Bush commented: “Will be the budget, I think.” Alongside the Mandelson scandal, he blamed Keir Starmer and Morgan McSweeney for not understanding the resentment on Labour’s backbenches caused by the sacking of Lucy Powell MP as Leader of the House. She was apparently one of the few members of the Government who actually listened to them.

A narrow choice

All of which brings us back to the Deputy Leadership election, in which Lucy Powell and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson are the only contenders left. On one level, it’s a contest between a current and an ex-member of the Cabinet, neither of whom have criticised, let alone opposed, Government policy. To describe Lucy Powell, a member of Labour Friends of Israel who supported Owen Smith’s bid for the Party leadership against Jeremy Corbyn in 2016,  as even ‘soft left’ would be generous in the extreme. It’s a very narrow choice.

On the other hand, Phillipson is clearly the leadership’s favourite. This means that Powell is definitely not the preferred candidate of the Starmer team. As such, she will be the focus of all those who have criticisms and misgivings about the policies pursued by the Government over the last 15 months as well as the authoritarian regime imposed on the Party. She also has the backing of Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who is now being openly touted as a potential successor to Starmer.

If Lucy Powell is serious about winning, she needs to recognise that a majority of members, on economic issues especially, are well to the left of the Government. They want an end to austerity – including the two-child benefit cap which drives families into poverty – and public ownership of key utilities. They also want a restoration of democracy within the Party. Will Lucy Powell seek the support of these members in her campaign to win the Deputy Leadership?

Given the Government’s disastrous showing in the polls and the way recent events have exposed  Keir Starmer’s flawed political judgment, this contest will inevitably be about the future direction of the Party. But if the pundits are right, it could also be rehearsal for an imminent challenge for the leadership itself. We are in uncharted waters.

Image: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mandelson_at_the_FCDO_2025-02-08-10-17-A.jpg Source:
Foreign Secretary David Lammy is pictured with the new British Ambassador to the United States of America, Lord Peter Mandelson. Author: Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.