Mike Phipps looks back at the highs and lows of 2025. Part One of two.

“No party has won such a huge parliamentary victory and seen their fortunes reverse as quickly,” noted one observer at the end of 2024. That pattern was not reversed in 2025 – in fact, it intensified.

The surge in support for the far right that former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell MP had predicted if Labour failed to set out a clear, radical vision, has indeed come about – and in an increasingly dangerous international context. The second Trump presidency has given impetus to extreme right movements across the world, and in Europe especially, where, in Trump’s view, only they can save the continent from “civilizational erasure”. At the same time, his administration sanctions EU officials endeavouring to hold the line against online hate speech and disinformation pouring out of the US.

2025 also saw Trump’s contempt for Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself against unprovoked Russian aggression on full display, emboldening Putin’s imperialist campaign abroad and vicious authoritarianism at home. Meanwhile the White House is intent on rewarding Israel’s genocide, sanctioning UN officials who condemn it, and announcing that the US will take over Gaza, turn it into a ‘riviera’ and permanently expel the Palestinians.

In Britain, the Government continued to alienate its natural supporters and the wider public. Its prioritisation of economic growth over all else saw Chancellor Rachel Reeves announce a third runway at Heathrow in January.

In February, Prime Minister Keir Starmer outlined an increase in defence spending, to be funded by a 40% cut in the international aid budget, which precipitated the resignation of International Development Minister Anneliese Dodds. The Government’s move mirrored President Trump’s slashing of overseas aid and closure of USAID. Others falling in behind the Trump agenda included Jeff Bezos, who announced an editorial shift at the Washington Post in favour of Trump, and BP which said it was going to focus on profits rather than climate policy. Other large corporates began abandoning their commitment to diversity and inclusion.

In March, general welfare cuts, briefed by the Government to be in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, were abandoned after widespread opposition from Labour MPs, in favour of specific cuts targeting disability benefits. Former MSP Neil Findlay resigned from the Party.

In April, former National Executive Committee member Mish Rahman also quit Labour. A survey by Survation found that two-thirds of Labour members felt the Party was heading in the wrong direction. In a league table of Cabinet favourites, Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner came top, while Keir Starmer himself came third from bottom, ahead of Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall and austerity Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who had a minus 41% rating.

Electoral disasters

In May, Labour lost the Runcorn and Helsby by-election to Reform UK. Turnout was high, with Reform overturning Labour’s 14,700 majority in a result that, if replicated at a general election, could see them win scores of parliamentary seats. More than 250 Labour MPs, including Chancellor Rachel Reeves and three other Cabinet members would lose their seats if the swing were repeated across the country.

Hackney MP Diane Abbott commented: “Labour’s campaign for these elections was non-stop boats, asylum, deportation, courts. It was all about copying Reform UK. It was a disaster. It should stop.”

Nadia Whittome MP agreed: “Cutting disability benefits and scrapping the Winter Fuel Allowance made voters abandon us. The leadership needs to end its obsession with chasing the far-right on immigration, which only bolsters Reform.”

But Labour did not end its obsession with tailing the far right – instead it doubled down. Keir Starmer spoke of the “incalculable damage” done by immigration and called Britain an “island of strangers”, echoing the rhetoric of Enoch Powell.

Labour also fared poorly in the May local elections, suffering a net loss of 187 seats and getting only 20% of the vote. But it was the Tories who really tanked – a net loss of 674 seats, with only 15% of the vote, losing all 15 councils they previously ran. Reform won 676 seats with 30% of the vote.

However, as Richard Burgon MP observed: “Polling shows Labour is bleeding at least as much support to its left as to its right. A YouGov poll earlier this year found Labour had lost seven per cent of its 2024 voters to the Liberal Democrats and six per cent to the Greens. That’s more than the five per cent lost to Reform UK and four per cent to the Conservatives.”

The Government did not appear to be listening, however, announcing more punitive anti-migrant measures, oblivious to the fact that migration did not even figure in the top five reasons among those who spurned Labour at these local elections who had earlier voted for the Party at the 2024 general election. The removal of the Winter Fuel Allowance, the failure to reduce the cost of living or improve public services, broken promises and a failure to stand up to the rich and powerful were the key factors determining their rejection of the Party.

A partial retreat from austerity?

In June’s Spending Review, the Chancellor finally U-turned on Winter Fuel Payments, restoring them to some 9 million pensioners. But, overall, despite a boost for ‘affordable’ (80% of market rate) housing and health, the Review, suggested economist James Meadway, would not “feel like an end to austerity and does not address the underlying economic problems we face.” He added: “The most immediate culprit for this miserliness is the huge increase in defence spending.”

Later that month, the Government partially backtracked on its disability benefit cuts, saying they would now affect only new claimants. Some of the 120-plus Labour rebels who threatened to defeat the measure were persuaded to withdraw and it was passed despite a still sizeable Labour rebellion.

It was announced that US nuclear bombs are to return to the UK as part of the Government’s Defence Review. In a shocking attack on civil liberties, the Government proposed to ban the direct action group Palestine Action as terrorist, perhaps unaware of the widespread outrage the move would later provoke.

To be continued…

Mike Phipps’ book Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow: The Labour Party after Jeremy Corbyn (OR Books, 2022) can be ordered here.

Image: https://www.flickr.com/photos/number10gov/54354198372 Creator: Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Str | Credit: Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Str Copyright: Crown copyright. Licensed under the Open Government Licence Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.0 Generic CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Deed