Dave Levy contributes to the debate on Labour’s failure to break through in the Uxbridge by-election

Michael Calderbank on Labour Hub tries to ensure that this time the truth is not caught putting its boots on while the lies circle the world. He rightly welcomes the Selby and Anstley result and rightly questions why Labour were unable to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip. While many are in a high-minded way looking for political causes, be it issues or trust, Labour supporters need to ask if there isn’t something wrong in London Region which over the last 26 months has lost three councils and now two by-elections, in all cases underperforming Labour’s supposed polling lead.

In Calderbank’s view, with which I agree, he suggests that issues such as HS2 which passes through the constituency, or Labour’s assumed attitude to the Modi regime in India reinforcing what seems to be a long-term impact of Modi’s Indian supporters leaving Labour, were relevant.  

Starmer’s rejection of repealing the two-child cap on social security during the week of the election, together with Reeves’ cult-like repetition of her translucent golden rules as an excuse to spend no money, will not have helped. I would add the argument earlier this year on student and higher education funding using a graduate tax will not have helped in a university town; and the position on public sector pay in a town where the NHS and education are large employers all adds to the feeling that Labour’s messages are without hope.

One of my correspondents also suggests that neutering Brexit as an issue may have been a good thing; I think, probably not, although Uxbridge had a 58% Leave vote –  but as we know, enthusiasm for the project is waning and the day before the poll, the Economist reported that we now have a UK majority of people that want to rejoin the EU.

Momentum, echoing Calderbank, pick up on issues of local party engagement, highlighting both the bureaucratic way in which the leading local candidate was excluded and replaced by what seems to be a classic Starmerite identikit candidate, wearing all the right internal badges. Mystery also surrounds the 2019 candidate, Ali Milani’s decision not to seek re-nomination.

The Tories were in meltdown, with Sunak’s exhausted government, their candidate was at the bottom of the ballot paper, below the fold, the weather was superb, there were no other elections in close proximity on the day, there was no incumbency advantage since Boris Johnson wasn’t standing, and apart from the leadership musings on policy, there were no internally based attacks on the Labour’s candidate or campaign, yet victory was still beyond Labour’s grasp. Labour’s voters did not turn out:  this is cogently argued by Open Democracy and Urban Ramblings. This failure must be due to the manifesto, the Party’s culture and/or the campaign’s organisation.

Given the polls, and the performance of the Sunak government, and comparing it to 2019, with the need for the election being the disgrace of the former MP, by rights it should have been a landslide.

I consistently argue that one of the biggest errors that strategists make is confusing their own propaganda for objective reality. The Uxbridge and South Ruislip result suggests hung parliament territory, a predicted outcome reinforced by the West Country result in Somerton and Frome.

I am advised that large amounts of leafleting took place, some might say excessive;  one wonders how effective it is, just as those that organise doorstep work overemphasise its importance. Some of the London Region-printed material has been politically very poor. It is also reported that local activists with their knowledge and informal networks were excluded since Region knew best, an arrogance illustrated by ‘pizzagate’ together with Luke Akehurst’s reply to that thread and recognisable to anyone who had had any dealings with London region.

London Region office have, over the last 26 months lost three councils and now two by-elections. Are we sure they’re doing it right?

The disgraceful pile on, in the Times among other places, on the Tory-conceived, imposed and under-funded ULEZ is morally and electorally wrong, and a cover to ensure that questions about the Labour First political leadership, its praetorian guard in London Region and its triangulation/Blue Labour strategy aren’t asked.

Dave Levy is a Labour Party member in Lewisham Deptford where he is a GMB delegate to their General Committee.

Image:PM Rishi Sunak thanks volunteers with Steve Tuckwell after byelection victory https://www.flickr.com/photos/conservativeparty/53061330968/. Creator: The Conservative Party  Copyright: Jacob Groet/No10. Licence: Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0)