By Tim May

Guatemala’s so-called ‘Pact of the Corrupt’ are getting desperate. With only a few months remaining before anti-corruption president-elect Bernardo Arévalo is sworn in, they know their days of impunity are numbered. On September 29^th, Attorney General Consuelo Porras ordered an overnight raid of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). Backed by around 120 police officers, prosecutors violently seized stacks of boxes containing vote tallies. In response to this blatant attempt to undermine the electoral process, Guatemalans took to the streets. For weeks the country has been paralysed by a national strike and road blockades. Although past their height, mass mobilisation looks set to continue into November as Guatemalans defend this once-in-a-generation shot at democracy.

The last time such a possibility was realised was almost 80 years ago, during what is known as the ‘Ten Years of Spring’, when leftist Juan José Arévalo was democratically elected following the 1944 Guatemalan Revolution. Arévalo and his political successor Jacobo Árbenz pursued a socialist agenda of land reform favourable to the poor and Indigenous majority. In response to this threat to their economic interests, the elite – with US backing – orchestrated a coup against Árbenz in 1954, bringing Guatemala’s democratic experiment to an abrupt end. In the decades which followed, a string of right-wing military dictators crushed dissent during a 36-year long armed conflict which claimed 200,000 predominantly Indigenous victims.

It is a sweet irony that the person who could right this historical wrong is the son of Guatemala’s first democratically elected leader. The elite were unprepared for Bernando Arévalo’s sudden ascent. Preceding the first round of elections in June, several high-profile candidates had been disqualified due to their anti-corruption stances. Arévalo of the centre-left Semilla (Seed) party, however, was underestimated as a non-threatening outsider, unlikely to succeed. The establishment soon realised their mistake in allowing Arévalo to run after he came in second place with 13% of the vote, making it through into the presidential runoff.

Since then, they have done everything within their power to obstruct his path, from manufacturing claims of electoral irregularities, to attempting to disqualify his party. Their legal efforts to subvert Arévalo’s election result have been universally denounced as illegitimate by the State Department, the Organisation of American States (OAS), and the EU.

In August’s presidential runoff, Arévalo beat his rival Sandra Torres by a landslide with almost 60% of the vote. However, this popular mandate has not signalled an end to the elite’s attempts to dislodge him. Rather, they have doubled down. Their actions on 29^th September were just the latest in a series of raids which have sought to intimidate the electoral authorities into submission, and in effect, carry out a slow-motion coup.

Recognising this is a make or break moment, the Guatemalan people are unwilling to back down. They are conscious of the missed opportunity of 2015 when massive anti-corruption protests forced the resignation of President Molina. This was a key moment when Guatemala’s cycle of corruption could have been broken. Instead Molina was replaced by the populist conservative Jimmy Morales, who despite riding on an anti-corruption platform soon became embroiled in his own corruption scandals. Worse still, Morales persecuted the few institutions committed to reforming the country. Under his watch, public institutions were co-opted and independent journalists and judges persecuted and forced into exile. Such attacks on the rule of law have accelerated at an even more alarming rate under the presidency of Gianmatei, who succeeded Morales in 2019.

Civic discontent with this democratic backsliding came to a head in 2021, when Indigenous organisations led widespread protests and a national strike during the summer. Then as now, protestors called for the resignation of corrupt political figures, as well as a Plurinational Constituent Assembly. In a previous article for Labour Hub, I wrote that despite the protests’ eventual submission, the slightest spark would set the country alight once again. September’s electoral raid has provided a spark, and this time Guatemalans won’t back down.

In 2021, protestors’ aspirations held little concrete possibility of being realised. With Arévalo however, the impossible suddenly feels possible, and his electoral victory has ignited real hope in the heart of Guatemalans. This perhaps explains the high levels of support for the protests across broad sectors of society. Despite Semilla’s key support base being largely urban middle-class, the rural Indigenous population has now united behind Arévalo. At their height, roadblocks obstructed 120 locations across the country. Despite such disruption to their daily lives, the citizenry resolutely voiced its support as a necessary sacrifice. In spite of attempts by the Giammattei Administration to whip up fear and spread misinformation about the protestors, their demonstrations have remained remarkably dignified and peaceful in the face of violence and intimidation.

Their determination is the product of years of frustration and protest. It is interesting to note the similarity here with Poland, whose democracy was also perceived to be on an inexorably downward spiral. The sudden political turnaround with the defeat of the Law and Justice party is attributed particularly to women voters, who marched in their hundreds of thousands to protest against the total ban on abortion in 2020. Like the Polish, Guatemalans too have learned lessons from their years of organised resistance.

Arévalo will however need much more than the public’s support if he is to challenge the elite’s entrenched position. As the limited success of the leftist governments of Colombia and Peru has shown, such a task is easier said than done, especially with a Congress hostile to such actions. For now at least, the main challenge is ensuring that Arévalo makes it to the finish line in January. A lot can happen in two months.

 Tim May is a curator and researcher interested in issues of social justice and decolonisation.

Image: Cesar Bernardo Arévalo de León. Author: Javier Arango, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.