Predicting the outcome of elections is usually a mug’s game but a few recent polls are worth highlighting, ahead of next week’s local and devolution elections, argues Mike Phipps.

First, the scale of Labour’s trouncing could be unprecedented. “Barring a drastic change in fortunes, Labour’s vote-share could fall to historic lows across elections for councils in England and devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland on 7 May, with big gains for Reform, the Greens and nationalist parties, according to recent polling,” reports the Guardian. Overall, nearly 2,000 local councillors might be lost.

In Wales, Labour could be pushed into third place – or even lower. In Scotland, after years of mis-government by the Scottish National Party, it is Reform who are predicted to surge into second place, rather than Labour – despite Anas Sarwar’s efforts to distance Scottish Labour from Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Labour is expected to take a big hit in London. But the capital is such a stronghold for Labour that even the loss of scores of seats may not affect the outcome of who controls the administration in many boroughs.  “Given the likely tally and location of Labour’s losses, the real story of the night is likely to be the return of something currently missing from many town halls: genuine opposition,” suggests one analyst.

However, a new poll suggests that Labour could be pushed into second place in seven of its own councils in London, with the Greens getting most votes in five different boroughs.

One thing is clear: the distance that Mayor Khan put between himself and Keir Starmer Government’s over Gaza in previous elections is unlikely to have much impact  on the result this time.

Another important feature of the electoral map, and not just in the capital, is that Labour is now losing far more votes to Greens (7.4 points) than to Reform (3.6 points), says one recent analysis. “Overall, a majority of 2024 Labour voters are now backing other parties, and a whopping 70% of those are fleeing leftward,” it suggests. “Labour’s collapse is not the result of a right-wing surge, but of left-wing dissent.”

This has been evident for a while, with Plaid Cymru – not Reform – winning October’s Caerphilly by-election and the Greens – not Reform – winning Gorton and Denton earlier this year. Yet the Starmer Government’s response has been to adapt increasingly to Reform’s agenda on migration and civil liberties. Small wonder that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has now risen up the ranks to become Labour’s least popular Cabinet minister among Party members.

Members are now evenly split on whether Keir Starmer should quit. Among those who think there should be a change of leader, over half believe a leadership contest should take place after the local and devolved elections in May, about which members are unsurprisingly feeling overwhelmingly pessimistic.

In the Guardian this week, in an article headlined “What does Britain need from Labour? Not another new PM, but a government with the guts to take radical action,” Polly Toynbee argues that the Party should not “dash to decapitate” – but spend some time mapping out a radical vision of renewal that could address the multiple problems Britain faces. This is something the current Government has signally failed to do.

But even she concedes there needs to be a “dignified departure for Starmer, with several months’ notice.” Many agree: it’s not a question of if, but when Starmer should go.

The rot continues, until…

The problem is that until he does, the rot continues. The unwillingness of potential contenders to mount a challenge ahead of these elections – despite the inescapable responsibility Starmer must bear for appointing the provenly scandal-ridden Peter Mandelson to the highest ambassadorial office – has already cost the Party dear. The Prime Minister may have survived last night’s Commons vote – despite a significant number of Labour MPs voting against the whips or abstaining – but the experience has been deeply humiliating for a Government that promised to clean up politics. The future release of more documents about Mandelson means the issue is unlikely to drop off the news agenda, but the fact is that more than enough was known about Mandelson’s unsuitability for office long before the full details about his close relationship with a conflicted paedophile emerged.

Starmer’s failure to see this, which is far more significant than the minutiae of a flawed vetting process, is sufficient reason for him to go. Yet those who could initiate the process prefer to put political calculation ahead of constitutional duty. Now hundreds of decent Labour councillors are going to lose their seats because of this failure of people at the top to show true leadership and do the right thing.

Furthermore, the demoralisation among Party members, whereby thousands of once active canvassers and leafleteers will simply sit this election out, is also the direct responsibility of the Starmer-McSweeney-Mandelson triumvirate. It was they who prioritised a witch-hunt against the left over Party unity; who connived to replace hard-working councillors with factionally motivated careerists; who closed down local constituency parties and imposed loyal acolytes. The arrogance and bullying of this clique, which the mainstream media rightly calls out in relation to Government, began as a culture imposed on the Labour Party itself. On this much of the media is strangely silent.

Two of these three have now gone in disgrace. The longer Keir Starmer stays, the more difficult it will be for a future Labour leader to enact within the current electoral cycle the radical agenda that Polly Toynbee appears to call for. Without real change, Britain could be looking at the election of an unprecedently right wing government in three years – or earlier. To prevent that, Labour needs new policies, a new Cabinet and a new leader – the sooner the better.

Mike Phipps’ book Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow: The Labour Party after Jeremy Corbyn (OR Books, 2022) can be ordered here.

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