By Justice for Colombia

Colombia’s first round presidential election on 31st May saw progressive candidate Ivan Cepeda win a historic number of votes for a left-wing candidate in the first round. However, his far-right opponent, Abelardo de la Espriella, won a higher percentage of the vote overall, taking the elections into a second round run off on 21st June. The result is as yet preliminary, with a final tally to be declared after the votes have been scrutinised.

The preliminary result based on ballot box samples has no legal validity, and it is used to give an indication of the election’s outcome to avoid uncertainty. However, President Petro has stated that he does not recognise the ‘precount’ vote’s validity because of suspicious changes to the algorithms used in the vote registration software, and the possible inscription of extra voters who were not on the official electoral rolls. Cepeda has also said that “atypical voting” has been discovered at some tables, and that he won’t discuss the results until the scrutiny of the vote has been completed.

According to the preliminary results, Iván Cepeda won almost 41 per cent of the votes, De la Espriella 43.7 per cent.

Setting aside the potential issues around the software and the preliminary count, analysis of the vote shows that the bulk of the far-right vote went to De la Espriella. Meanwhile, the centrist vote either went to Cepeda, or to a handful of centrist candidates, and may not turn to De la Espriella in the second round. This means that De la Espriella could have already reached his electoral ceiling.

At the same time, Cepeda may still have room to grow his vote. Cepeda was able to mobilise almost 9.7 million votes, the highest ever first round tally for a progressive candidate, and most analysts think he can still benefit by appealing to the centrist vote. Furthermore, voter abstention was over 42 per cent. Since second round votes often come in around 50-55 per cent participation, this means that there are at least another 5-10 per cent of voters who did not take part in the first round. If either candidate can mobilise this vote, it could prove decisive.

The ‘precount’ is carried out by a private company contracted by the National Registry Office. The votes are counted in front of witnesses and electoral authorities and then a contractor telephones them through to the Registry Office. At the Registry Office the data is inputted into a programme owned by a private company. In 2022, this same system saw Cepeda’s Historic Pact coalition lose almost 400,000 votes, as was discovered during the scrutiny process. Events such as this have led some commentators to point out that in Colombia “recent electoral history provides an uncomfortable lesson: it is not enough to get the votes, you need to be able to defend them.” This is why all political parties deploy large numbers of electoral observers and official witnesses, and those with the most money can cover more polling tables.

Petro’s allegations around the software being used to count the vote are based on controversies surrounding the company contracted to run the precount. Thomas Greg & Sons is owned by Fernando and Camilo Bautista. Convicted of fraud in the US in the late 1980s, and facing fraud charges in Mexico today, the company owners until recently had the contract to administer and print Colombia’s passports and have run the National Registry’s scrutiny processes and software for more than a decade.

Critics point out that this combination makes them ideally placed to manufacture voter fraud. Earlier this year, President Petro accused the brothers of meeting Abelardo De la Espriella, with whom, it is alleged, they discussed distorting the 2026 election results. De la Espriella has fiercely denied the accusation, but the former head of Colombia’s DNI National Intelligence Department, confirmed that a meeting had been investigated.

Left versus right

Cepeda has signalled his intention to mobilise social movements and left-wing sectors – rather than accommodate the centre as some analysts suggested – by naming indigenous senator Aida Quilcué as his vice-presidential running mate. She is a strong advocate of the peace process, environmental rights and justice for historic state violence after her husband was killed by the army in 2008.

Aida rose to national prominence as a longstanding activist and leader in Cauca, particularly following the mass mobilisation of around 15,000 people from Cauca to Bogota to protest poor social conditions and violence in 2008. While travelling to the protest, known as a ‘Minga’ (a Nasa word for collective labour), Aida’s husband Edwin Legarda was murdered by the army. During the subsequent trials of soldiers involved, Aida and her daughter received multiple threats.

Were the right to win the presidential election, it would take immediate steps to reverse the progress made under Petro. This would mean ending current peace negotiations with armed groups, turning a blind eye towards state violence and ripping up social reform bills drafted to reduce gaping inequality and bringing Colombia firmly under the influence of the Trump White House. By contrast, a Cepeda win would continue the country’s journey along a pathway towards social, political and economic transformation that the country has urgently needed for so long.

This article was compiled from reports by Justice for Colombia.

Image:A de la Espriella https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:A_de_la_Espriella.jpg Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIjrAHtdmT4 Author: Olímpica Stereo, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.