By Mark Perryman

Farage thrives on success, or at least the expectation of success.

This is the number one achievement of Makerfield: what seemed a racing certainty for Reform UK to win, or at least be a sufficiently close-run loss to be put down to the ‘Burnham effect’, has turned into a humiliating defeat.

It’s the third favourable by-election in a row Reform have fought and lost, and each to a different party: Plaid Cymru, the Greens and now Labour.

Or in the latter case, perhaps more accurately, to Andy Burnham.

There are few other Labour politicians who could have galvanised the campaign in the way Andy Burnham did. The question remains: could he have done it anywhere apart from Greater Manchester?

To which the answer might be: Keir Starmer couldn’t have done it anywhere.

Reform UK now face a four-way squeeze: a fast-recovering Tory party. a fast-emerging Restore Britain Party and an Andy Burnham-led Labour Party and government.

So far, so good.

Two Scottish by-elections on the same night as Makerfield provide the outline for some deeper consideration.

The SNP losing Aberdeen South to the Tories is down to very particular circumstances. This is a city absolutely dominated by the North Sea Oil industry, with the SNP Scottish government blamed for planning to close it down. Labour’s share of the vote? Down by 19.4%, barely saving its deposit, at 5.4%. In Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, the SNP held the seat, up 5.9% to 41.2%. Labour was down 18%, finishing fourth on 15.4%.

In Makerfield, Labour was significantly helped by both the Greens and Lib Dems running non-campaigns. It would be good to hear Andy Burnham thank both parties, but sadly in his victory speech he failed to do so.

Of the Lib Dems’ top 50 target seats in 2024, all but two were Tory seats.

Of the Greens top 50 target seats in 2029, 36 are Labour seats.

To turn Makerfield into an Andy Burnham-led Labour Party seeing off Reform in 2029 will require Labourism to be transformed by pluralism. It will be necessary to recognise Labour’s future as part of a progressive bloc, not a stand-alone.

If you’re in East Midlands, come and hear me speak on the above on Saturday, in Newark. Details here.

Mark Perryman is the editor of The Starmer Symptom. Contributors include Clive Lewis, Danny Dorling, Emma Burnell, Gargi Bhattacharyya, James Meadway, Hilary Wainwright Jeremy Gilbert, Neal Lawson, Phil Burton-Cartledge and Yasmin Alibhai-Brown.

Main image: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nigel_Farage_%2833149364955%29.jpg Source: Nigel Farage Author:
Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.