By the End fuel Poverty Coalition

The latest projections from Cornwall Insight show that gas unit rates are set to rise from 6.29p per kWh last winter to around 7.9p from 1st October, up around 26% year on year and the highest level since early 2023. Electricity unit rates are being held roughly stable, helped by the Government cutting VAT on electricity.

Ofgem is lowering its estimate of how much energy a ‘typical’ household uses, but on a like-for-like basis (the same assumed consumption as last year), bills are likely to be higher than last winter and hundreds of pounds above pre-crisis levels. 

New research has revealed why energy use is falling, exposing a nationwide split in how households have responded to rising energy costs. Since 2023, 36% of the public have cut their energy use through efficiency measures alone, while almost a third have cut back through more dangerous behaviours that indicate they cannot afford enough energy.

The research by Opinium for the End Fuel Poverty Coalition found that the most popular energy-saving action people have taken since 2023 were setting the washing machine to 30°C (38% have done this), turning down the temperature of radiators in empty rooms (36%) and turning down the boiler temperature (29%).

The most common cost saving measures taken since 2023 because people could not afford to use energy were cutting down water use in the bath or shower (23%), going to bed early to keep warm (21%) and heating only one room or not using central heating (17%).

Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented: “The reliable indicators of what is actually happening to household energy prices are the unit rates and standing charges and these latest predictions will be deeply worrying to households up and down the country. 

“We’re now seeing energy consumption decline. Some reduction could be seen as a good thing, caused by better energy efficiency in people’s homes. But sadly, for many households, reductions in energy use have happened simply because people cannot afford to use as much energy as in the past.

“That means that some are demonstrating dangerous behaviours such as cutting back on washing and for one in ten members of the public, skipping hot meals to save on energy. Many people also told the researchers that they have borrowed money to pay for energy. Meanwhile all this is set against a backdrop of energy firms posting in excess of £6 billion profits on their UK operations in 2026 alone.”

Jonathan Bean, spokesperson for Fuel Poverty Action, added: “Cutting the assumed consumption doesn’t make homes any warmer or bills any more affordable. It simply widens the gulf between the number the public sees and the amount people actually have to find to keep their homes warm in winter and cool in summer.”

Robert Palmer, Deputy Director of Uplift, commented: “Hard up Brits are dreading next week’s price cap announcement. This research shows almost a third of people are rationing their energy already because of cost.”

The End Fuel Poverty Coalition has written to new Ministers calling for further reductions in the cost of electricity by reforming pricing and also offering more support to people in fuel poverty now. Among the recommendations are an enhanced Warm Home Discount, reformed Cold Weather Payment and an energy debt relief scheme to be introduced this winter.

War windfalls for energy elite

Meanwhile, the oil and gas war windfall continues to grow as total UK profits posted by a handful of energy firms in 2026 exceed £6 billion. The UK profits are part of global results posted by BP, Centrica, Chevron, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Iberdrola, Shell and Total of more than £95 billion in 2026.

Among the recent results, Shell posted adjusted earnings of £7.3 billion for the second quarter of 2026, its best result in four years and up 120% on the same period last year. Equinor added to its bumper first quarter by posting £8.58 billion in adjusted operating income for Q2.

Centrica added a further £497 million in adjusted operating profit over the first half of the year, taking its total since privatisation four decades ago to more than £56 billion.
As profits soar, the personal fortunes of those at the top of the oil and gas industry have improved since the renewed hostility between the US and Iran last month.

Analysis of shareholdings declared in company annual reports shows that the bosses of BP, Chevron, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies have together seen the value of their personal stakes rise by more than £30 million between 26 February and 31 July 2026.

Despite only taking up post on 1 April 2026, new BP boss Meg O’Neill has seen the value of her shareholding increase by almost £2 million as the firm threatens to leave the North Sea after extracting decades of oil and gas profits from it.

Updated analysis of the publicly declared interests of members of the House of Lords shows that peers with shareholdings in the same firms have also seen significant gains since the war began.

Lord Agnew of Oulston, a senior figure behind GB News, has seen the value of his shares in Equinor grow by around £44,000. Lord Sassoon, a former Conservative Treasury minister with shares in Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum and Shell, has seen his combined holdings increase by around £37,000.

Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented:
“As people brace for the next price cap announcement on 26 August and a third of households are on the brink of or in energy debt, the energy industry watches the profits climb. These price shock profiteers are doing very well out of the Iran conflict, but they are doing little to solve the underlying problems.

“Long-term energy security cannot be built on a declining North Sea where firms have already extracted 90% of commercially viable gas. The geology of the basin means import dependence is only going one way. The answer is to use taxes on these profits to support households, help people to make their homes more energy efficient and build the homegrown renewable energy that ends our exposure to these shocks for good.”

In polling by Survation in May this year, 74% of the public felt it is morally wrong for oil and gas companies to profit from the energy crisis caused by the Iran war.

Robert Palmer, Uplift Deputy Director, said: “This profit is largely a war bonus from the Iran conflict. The war isn’t only a humanitarian disaster, it’s also an economic disaster for ordinary people who have ended up paying a ‘Trump Tax’ as the cost of energy rises. Oil bosses and shareholders are reaping a tainted dividend, while bill payers face sky high prices and the growing impact of climate change.”