By the End Fuel Poverty Coalition

Ofgem has announced that energy bills are likely to increase for a majority customers from 1st October 2026.

The regulator has confirmed that gas unit rates are set to rise from 6.29p per kWh last winter to 8p from 1st October, up around 27% year on year and the highest level since early 2023. Its spokesperson admitted that the rise is due to “high international gas prices.”

Electricity unit rates are being held roughly stable, helped by the Government cutting VAT on electricity.

Those paying by standard credit (rather than direct debit or prepayment meter) will see unit rates roughly 8% higher than those paying on direct debit or by prepayment meter. The standing charges for these customers will also be much higher.

Customers on Economy 7 style tariffs will also see a discrepancy in their standing charges, which are 13% higher than for direct debit customers.

Once again, Ofgem’s calculations will leave customers in north Wales and Merseyside paying almost £360 a year in standing charges alone, while households in Yorkshire, north east England and southern Scotland all pay over £333 a year. Customers in London will pay £267 a year in standing charges while the GB average is £309 a year.

While Ofgem has lowered its estimate of how much energy a “typical” household uses, on a like-for-like basis, bills are likely to be higher than last winter and remain hundreds of pounds above winter 2020/21.

Previous research has revealed why energy use is falling, with 36% of the public cutting their energy use through efficiency measures alone, while almost a third have cut back through more dangerous behaviours that indicate they cannot afford enough energy.

Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said: “The Ofgem price cap may limit the unit rates and standing charges that consumers pay, but sadly it doesn’t cap the number of people suffering due to rising energy costs.

“As with previous rises, the price of gas is driving this latest increase. Every unit of gas used will be 27% more expensive than last winter and over 150% higher than at the end of 2020. Price rises fall hardest on the households who can least afford them, with millions forced to pay more for the same energy or ration the energy they use even further.

“Cutting VAT on electricity and last year’s extension of the Warm Home Discount was a start, but Ministers need to go further and faster in helping people. That means further expansion of support programmes, funding a proper energy debt relief scheme and a serious push to improve energy efficiency of the homes that need it the most.

“Yet as around five million households in the UK spend more than 20% of their income on energy, just a handful of energy firms have made more than £6 billion in UK generated profits this year alone.”

In a further blow to households, the Centre for Sustainable Energy (CSE) has modelled that if the cost of keeping a home safe during a summer as hot as 2026 is taken into account, fuel poverty rates could soar even higher.

Ian Preston, Director of Development and External Affairs, at the Centre for Sustainable Energy, said: “This latest price rise is a reminder that energy bills aren’t just a winter problem anymore.

“Our modelling shows that if we accounted for the cost of keeping a home at a safe temperature during a summer as hot as this one, fuel poverty rates could be between 17%- to 29% higher than official figures suggest and that’s before the latest bill increase is factored in.

“The government is right to invest in warmer homes, but the Warm Homes Plan needs to work all year round. For renters unable to modify their home, older people, disabled people, and families with young children, being unable to afford to keep cool is just as dangerous as being unable to afford to keep warm.”

Meanwhile, the health problems of living in a cold damp home have been highlighted by the recent case in Chepstow where doctors said that a 14-year-old girl collapsed with a chest infection potentially caused by sleeping in a mouldy flat.

Consumer expert Helen Dewdney advises consumers that under Ofgem rules, energy companies must try to help consumers with their bills and urges them to contact their provider before they get into difficulty. She said: “Get free debt advice as early as possible from Citizens Advice, StepChange or National Debtline and if you are not on a fixed tariff, look to get on one. The best deals will start to disappear. Look at the comparison sites, going direct and using cashback sites.”

The price cap applies to around 20 million GB households who are on variable tariffs. Around 11 million households are on fixed tariffs so will be unaffected by the change.